EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4. 

20 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Inflation still looks too hot for a Q4 rate cut, but what about Q1?

• EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
• Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
• Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, September 2025

In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Rising, but not the start of a sustained pick-up.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, August 2025

In one line: EZ manufacturing fell flat on its face in August.

13 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're lifting our Q3 GDP growth forecast for France

• Construction and manufacturing likely drove another slight increase in French GDP in Q3.
• Leading indicators for investment in France are subdued, but falling saving is helping consumption.
• Our updated forecasts for the four majors still see EZ GDP rising by 0.1% in Q3, but with downside risk.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Ugly, but stung by one-off distortions.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Not pretty. 

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Not pretty, but the official numbers are better.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August 2025

In one line: On track for a boost to Q3 GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Nothing to see, the trend is flat.

6 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spain continues to outperform; Italian GDP should rebound

• Spanish GDP for Q2 was revised up, and surveys and hard data suggest we are too downbeat on Q3...
• ...We are revising up our forecast, though we still look for GDP growth to slow a touch.
• Italian GDP, meanwhile, is still likely to rise by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, reversing Q2’s decline.

EZ Datanote: PMIs, Switzerland, September 2025

In on line: Rebounding, but tariff-sensitive manufacturing is weakening.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Hot. 

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Risks tilted to an upside surprise in the CPI; jobless claims should fall back next month.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Sep/Aug 2025

In one line: Inflation up, but less than we expected; spending, ex-services is flat.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, August 2025

In one line: On track for a small decline in Q3. 

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Decent headline, dovish selling price expectations.

EZ Datanote: Inflation & Retail Sales, Spain Sep/Aug 2025

EZ Datanote: ECB CES, August 2025

In one line: Another one for relatively hawkish policymakers.