EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, August 2025

In one line: A cyclical low; a gentle rebound now lies ahead.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, August 2025

In one line: A further near-term rise is coming before a plunge in early 2026.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, July 2025

In one line: Manufacturing on track to boost growth in Q3. 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Solid production numbers, but net trade in goods remain under pressure.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, July 2025

In one line: As we expected, but where was the Airbus-driven upward revision?

8 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Lifting our EZ H2 GDP forecasts, but downside risks still loom

• EZ GDP rose in Q2 only because of an accumulation of inventories...
• ...Inventories are now set to crash, but the drag from net trade will be buffered by a fall in imports.
• We now look for continued, albeit still-weak, Eurozone GDP growth in the second half of the year.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Better; inflation pressures remain strong despite subdued activity.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes. 

1 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ headline inflation close to 2% in August, but what about core?

• It’s a coin toss between EZ headline inflation at 2.1% or 2.0% in August, but what happened in the core?
• Early consumers’ spending data for July point to downside risks to growth in Q3.
• Germany’s labour market seems to be turning a corner, and ECB inflation expectations are elevated.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Hinting at a fall in Q3. 

EZ Datanote: ESI, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Unwelcome rise in services selling price expectations.

EZ Datanote: EZ Money Supply & ISTAT, Jul/Aug 2025

In one line: Steady, and solid, growth in EZ money supply.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q2

In one line: Stung by crash in net trade. 

29 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor August HICP is the last chance saloon for ECB doves

• The acceleration in money supply growth has faded, but it still signals solid underlying GDP growth.
• Surveyed EC selling price expectations rose in services but fell further in food.
• The Swiss economy came down to Earth in Q2 amid wild swings in net trade and inventories.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, September

In one line: Not pretty.

28 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Watch core inflation in France and Spain in a busy end to the week

• GfK consumer confidence in Germany sank in September, but income expectations still look fine.
• All eyes on core inflation in France and Spain for signs of a downside surprise for the EZ print. 
• Unemployment in Germany likely rose in August, but the IAB survey points to better times ahead.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, August 2025

In one line: Grim, and little scope for near-term improvement.

27 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Hopes of an ECB rate cut in September on life support

• Our call for a September rate cut is hanging on by the skin of its teeth; can the August HICP save it? 
• We doubt ECB doves will be able to push through easing in Q4 if the Bank stands pat next month.
• The game of chicken in French politics continues, with Mr. Bayrou’s government on the brink.