EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Dovish!

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Poor, but still consistent with slightly better growth in Q4.

PM Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, December 2025

In one line: Still very dovish. 

EZ Datanote: PMIs, Switzerland, December 2025

In one line: Dire straits in manufacturing, but big improvement in services.

5 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor Time to stress-test the relatively benign outlook for early 2026

• The hawkish shift in the ECB’s December forecasts has increased the risk of easing in early 2026.
• Growth in Spain was revised down slightly, with inflation staying sticky at the end of 2025.
• EZ M1 growth is stabilising at a modest pace, while manufacturing PMIs signal downside risk to industry.

15 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB preview: EZ policy rates to stay on hold all the way until 2027

• EZ inflation and GDP growth have both come in above the ECB’s September estimates lately.
• The ECB is set to revise up its forecasts but keep rates and other policy settings unchanged this week.
• Chances of additional rate cuts are retreating; the ECB easing cycle is over.

8 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP growth next year will be higher than the ECB expects

• EZ GDP growth picked up more than previously thought in Q3, far surpassing the ECB’s call, 0%.
• We reiterate our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q4, given our estimates for the big four.
• GDP growth will pick up in H1 next year, but probably by less than we previously thought.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November, 2025

In one line: Too hot for a December cut, but dovish data in food and core goods.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, November

In one line: Upside risk to German core inflation.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct 2025

In one line: Downside risk to EZ core inflation, relative to our forecast.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Plateauing after strong growth earlier in the year.

1 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor A jump in Germany's HICP keeps the EZ at 2.2% in November

• A hawkish German HICP keeps our forecast for Eurozone headline inflation at 2.2% for November…
• …but the details in Friday’s early EZ inflation numbers, however, tilt dovish, especially for the core.
• EZ retail sales likely had a slow start to Q4, due to weakness in Spain and Germany.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Decent headline, but mixed details.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, November 2025

In one line: Stabilising, but downside risks loom. 

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q3 2025

In one line: Stung by falling consumption and another hit from falling net trade.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Stalling? 

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Private sector activity growth slows but Q4 still set to be better than Q3.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence & Advance PMIs, France, November 2025

In one line: Solid headlines in services; weakness coming in industrial output.

24 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMIs for November show little reason for an ECB cut in December

• The tiny fall in the EZ composite PMI in November still leaves it pointing to stronger GDP growth in Q4.
• The PMIs also indicate rising price pressures, signalling little need for another ECB cut this year.
• EZ negotiated wage growth dropped in Q3, but this is not the start of a new trend.

EZ Datanote: Advance EC Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, November

In one line: Stable in November; spending should pick up regardless.