EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q3

In one line: On the brink of recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence & Advance PMIs, France, November 2023

In one line: French GDP is headed for a decline in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Germany's Economy Is Suffering; a Fiscal Crisis Would Make It Worse

• German GDP fell in Q3, and we look for a further decline in Q4, pushing the economy into recession.
• Real disposable income growth remains weak; we still think it will improve next year as inflation eases.
• The fiscal impasse will be resolved, eventually, but a near-term hit to growth is now likely.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October 2023

In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, September 2023

In one line: Solid, but the headline likely will roll over soon. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ Inflation Data Look Consistent with a March Rate Cut, to Us

• Inflation in the EZ is falling quickly, and the threat from a rebound in energy inflation is receding.
• Core inflation remains on track to undershoot the ECB’s September forecasts, especially in Q1.
• Sticky wages is a risk to our call for easing early next year, but the path to a March cut is still clear.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone