Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.
In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?
- German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat.
- Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge.
- Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.
- We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors.
- We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month.
- Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.
In one line: Only a washout in November can deliver an ECB rate cut now.
In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.
In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole.
In one line: Thin gruel, but a bit of clarity on the ECB’s ETS2 assumptions.
In one line: Nothing to see here, move along.
In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.
- Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
- Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.
In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again.
In one line: Expectations at a cyclical high.
- The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
- ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
- We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.
In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.
In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky.
In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.
- EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
- Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
- Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.
In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.
