Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
- Inflation in France fell sharply in January, but is now poised for a rebound as energy inflation rises.
- Consumer electricity prices in France are set to become much more volatile after the regulation shift.
- Core inflation in France should hold around 1% for most of 2026, before rising to 1.5% by December.
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
- German electricity prices fell only modestly in January, and petrol prices jumped.
- Low German gas inventories point to upside inflation risk, but also make sense given a shift to LNG supply.
- ZEW investor expectations fell in February but remain close to a cyclical high.
- The Swiss economy eked out growth of 0.2% in Q4 after shrinking in Q3. Q1 looks set to be better.
- EZ industry had a challenging December, and surveys point to downside risk in early Q1.
- We think it is only a matter of time before EU leaders get serious about joint borrowing for defence.
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
- EZ construction output jumped in December, partially offsetting the fall in industrial production.
- Adverse weather conditions in Germany point to a sharp drop in construction output in January.
- But leading indicators suggest EZ construction is turning a corner, pointing to a growth boost in 2026.
- Deflation in EZ and German energy producer prices points to a rebound in energy-intensive industry.
- The leap in the EZ manufacturing input price PMI signals a rebound in core EZ PPI inflation.
- EZ industrial production likely suffered its steepest monthly fall in more than two years in December.
- We retain a steepening bias in our forecast for short-term interest rates, less so in Bunds.
- The trend is your friend in EZ 10-year yield spreads, and we think it will remain so this year.
- Germany’s MDAX equity index will outperform further this year as the domestic economy recovers.
- The 2026 budget in France aims for a modest improvement in the deficit, to 5.0% of GDP.
- A slowdown in tax revenue is a key risk for French budget consolidation efforts this year…
- …monthly fiscal revenues were rising briskly as of Q4 25; markets will scrutinise these data closely in 2026.
In one line: Production stung by falling auto output, but still managed a decent Q4.
In one line: Stung by a plunge in aerospace output.
In one line: Momentum is building, but running well ahead of the survey data.
- Ms. Lagarde hinted at a rate cut if March forecasts fall below September’s baseline; we doubt they will…
- …The threshold for the ECB to take evasive action in March due to EURUSD is high, likely around 1.25.
- German factory orders soared by almost 10% in Q4, but survey data signal downside risk in Q1.
- EZ inflation dropped below 2% in January, and is set to remain at that level in February.
- The dovish pressure on the ECB will increase into the March meeting, but likely not enough for a cut.
- A downgrade to the ECB’s near-term core inflation forecast is the main dovish risk for policymakers.
- Soft French inflation data point to the EZ HICP conforming to the consensus today.
- We still see higher domestic inflation offsetting disinflationary currency strength in Switzerland…
- …Swiss headline inflation was likely stable in January, at 0.1%; will the SNB intervene to push down CHF?
- The ECB will hold rates steady this week, amid data to suit both hawkish and dovish policymakers.
- German retail sales rose by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, reversing weakness in Q3.
- The Swiss PMIs point to a rebound in growth in early 2026, matching our forecasts.
In one line: Falling energy and services inflation overpowered by rising inflation in food and core goods.
In one line: The EZ ends 2025 on a high.
In one line: Sticky, and hawkish, relative to our expectations.
