7 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation falls to zero; SNB will cut its key policy rate below 0%

• Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
• ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response. 
• We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, April/March 2025

In one line: Germany CPI looks softer than we anticipated, but core inflation rose. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy & Germany, Q1 2025

In one line: Supporting our above-consensus EZ call. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, April 2025

In one line: HICP coming in hot. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Growth slowed in Q1 after a strong H2-24. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1 2025

In one line: Barely growing, and trade uncertainty could well keep it that way in 2025. 

EZ Datanote: Money Supply & ECB Inflation Expectations, March 2025

In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock. 

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, May 2025

In one line: What tariff shock?

April 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

UNCERTAINTY OVER GLOBAL TRADE WILL WEIGH ON GROWTH...

• ...A SHORT TECHNICAL RECESSION IN H2 IS NOW OUR BASELINE

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, April

In one line: French industry intends to make hay while the sun is still shining.

28 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Robust inflation and growth data to lift EZ bond yields this week

• Our forecasts for Q1 GDP and the April HICP imply upside risk for ECB rate expectations this week.
• Robust national business surveys point to upside risk to our Q2 forecasts for GDP in Germany and France.
• Tariff front-running seems to be just what the doctor ordered for manufacturing in France.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, April

In one line: Resilient, but labour market prospects remain difficult.

22 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB

• The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
• Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
• Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, April 2025

In one line: Easing, as economic uncertainty rises.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, March 2025

In one line: Soft, but selling prices point to upside risks for the core.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Before the tariff shock; what happens next?

14 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance

• The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
• Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
• ‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, February

In one line: German industry likely had a great Q1, but what awaits in Q2? 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, February 2025

In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.