26 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Stronger euro unlikely to offer the ECB much help

• The disinflation from last year’s rally in EURUSD is almost over, but China is still exporting deflation.
• EURUSD would need to rally to 1.25-to-1.30 to offer the ECB any disinflationary help; that looks unlikely.
• Our models signal modest upside risk to EURUSD, but we think 1.17 is a reasonable baseline for now.

18 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Don't fear inflation in the EZ, fear disinflation and fiscal risk

• Downside risks to EZ economic growth are widening, but we see broadly stable nominal growth.
• The starting position of public deficits makes fiscal balances vulnerable to a slowdown in the economy.
• A recession would widen the EZ budget deficit to 6% of GDP, triggering pro-cyclical tightening.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, May 2026

In one line: Investor sentiment rebounds in May, slightly.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, March 2026

In one line: Boosted by capital goods. 

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, April 2026

In one line: The core will snap back in May, but a fuel duty cut will lower energy inflation.

11 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ industry finishes Q1 in decent shape, despite German weakness

• German industrial output is still trailing leading indicators; revisions or a rebound are coming.
• Nowcast models for Q1 GDP in Germany look strong despite weakness in industry and retail sales data.
• Industrial output in Spain jumped in March, helping production in the EZ as a whole to a small gain.

5 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: robust German industry and rising Swiss inflation

• Swiss inflation likely rose further at the start of Q2, lifted primarily by higher inflation in import prices.
• German manufacturing data for March should reveal gains in both production and new orders.
• Retail sales in the EZ fell in March, but we think the German headline will be revised higher next month.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Q1 GDP & April Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Q1 GDP boosted by consumption and net trade; labour market cracking in Q2? 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, April 2026

In one line: Lifted by a further surge in energy inflation. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Grim, but appear unduly depressed by seasonals. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1 2026

In one line: Stung by falling energy consumption and plunge in construction. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Services flattered by plunge in package holiday inflation. 

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, March 2026

In one line: Real M1 growth is holding up, for now. 

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Temporary relief from plunge in package holiday inflation. 

April 2026- EZ Economic Chartbook

THE EUROZONE IS SLIPPING BACK INTO STAGFLATION…

• …THE ECB WILL FOCUS ON INFLATION WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, May 2026

In one line: In the footsteps of the PMI and IFO.

27 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: Inflation up, growth stable, the ECB on hold

• There are downside risks to Q1 GDP growth, but Eurozone inflation rose further in April, to 3.0%.
• Core inflation likely fell a touch in April, due to weakness in services, but it will snap back in May.
• The ECB will stand pat this week, waiting for the June forecasts before its next move—a hike.