Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Datanotes Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Germany CPI looks softer than we anticipated, but core inflation rose.
In one line: Supporting our above-consensus EZ call.
In one line: HICP coming in hot.
In one line: Growth slowed in Q1 after a strong H2-24.
In one line: Barely growing, and trade uncertainty could well keep it that way in 2025.
- The Eurozone economy was stronger in the first quarter than both we and the ECB expected.
- The pick-up in growth will prove short-lived, as trade uncertainty bites down on investment.
- Country data point to EZ inflation at 2.1% in April; we still see a chunky upside surprise in the core.
In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock.
In one line: What tariff shock?
- Spanish growth slowed in Q1 but still comfortably outperformed growth in the rest of the big four.
- The SNB is easing policy without cutting rates, signalling a desire to steer clear of negative rates.
- Money and credit data remain positive on outlook for the EZ economy but tariffs still threaten.
UNCERTAINTY OVER GLOBAL TRADE WILL WEIGH ON GROWTH...
- ...A SHORT TECHNICAL RECESSION IN H2 IS NOW OUR BASELINE
- Market expectations for the ECB’s deposit rate to stay below 2.0% next year are a sitting duck.
- Bunds are fairly valued at 2.5%; fiscal policy poses upside risk, but trade wars pull in the other direction.
- EURUSD is overshooting our models; EZ equities are set to struggle for a while longer.
In one line: French industry intends to make hay while the sun is still shining.
In one line: Resilient, but labour market prospects remain difficult.
- We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit.
- The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
- Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.
In one line: Easing, as economic uncertainty rises.
In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.
- Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices.
- Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind.
- Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.
In one line: Soft, but selling prices point to upside risks for the core.
In one line: Before the tariff shock; what happens next?
- The 90-day delay to US tariffs, excluding China, is a stay of execution only; uncertainty remains high.
- Italian Prime Minister Meloni is the first EU leader to announce support to exporters hit by US tariff hikes.
- Italian public debt issuance will remain high this year, keeping BTP yields elevated.
