Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
A TENSE MONTH OF EU-US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS LIES AHEAD...
- ...WE STILL SEE UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON GROWTH
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone economy was stronger in the first quarter than both we and the ECB expected.
- The pick-up in growth will prove short-lived, as trade uncertainty bites down on investment.
- Country data point to EZ inflation at 2.1% in April; we still see a chunky upside surprise in the core.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spanish growth slowed in Q1 but still comfortably outperformed growth in the rest of the big four.
- The SNB is easing policy without cutting rates, signalling a desire to steer clear of negative rates.
- Money and credit data remain positive on outlook for the EZ economy but tariffs still threaten.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
UNCERTAINTY OVER GLOBAL TRADE WILL WEIGH ON GROWTH...
- ...A SHORT TECHNICAL RECESSION IN H2 IS NOW OUR BASELINE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Market expectations for the ECB’s deposit rate to stay below 2.0% next year are a sitting duck.
- Bunds are fairly valued at 2.5%; fiscal policy poses upside risk, but trade wars pull in the other direction.
- EURUSD is overshooting our models; EZ equities are set to struggle for a while longer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit.
- The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
- Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices.
- Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind.
- Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The 90-day delay to US tariffs, excluding China, is a stay of execution only; uncertainty remains high.
- Italian Prime Minister Meloni is the first EU leader to announce support to exporters hit by US tariff hikes.
- Italian public debt issuance will remain high this year, keeping BTP yields elevated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A fall in investment will be the main driver of the incoming recession in the Eurozone.
- Germany will bear the brunt of the slowdown, with a 0.6% fall in GDP across Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and trade diversion are the main upside risks to growth relative to our new baseline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ is now likely entering a technical recession; the ECB will cut its deposit rate to 2.00% by June.
- Markets are pricing-in too dovish an outcome for the ECB; the bank will struggle to push rates below 2%.
- The economy is facing the trade shock in decent shape and fiscal stimulus still pose upside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Look through the noise to see a relatively modest US tariff package for the EU, all things considered.
- An ECB rate cut later this month is now fully priced in, but we still think the Bank will hold fire.
- The SNB can hold off from further rate cuts for now, despite the likely hit to growth from the US tariff hike.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The euro area economy comes into ‘Liberation Day’ in a relatively good position.
- A 25% blanket tariff on EZ exports to the US would bring down our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4pp.
- EU retaliation could raise EZ core goods inflation, but it depends on the size and scope of import tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We still think the data support the idea of an ECB pause in April, but what will happen on tariffs today?
- EZ core inflation fell nicely in March, but it will snap back in April as Easter effects reverse.
- Services activity in Switzerland is coming off the boil at the start of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.
- Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
- German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in February, which is as good as it will get this year.
- Non-energy goods is a wild card for inflation in March; base effects point to a big jump.
- A blanket and sustained EU retaliatory tariff would lift inflation, but we doubt this is on the cards.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany needs a budget deficit of 4% of GDP over three years to lift defence spending quickly to 3.5%.
- Defence and infrastructure spending require more Bunds; €100B per year over the next decade?
- Rising uncertainty will weigh on Bund yields in Q2, but they’re right to fear the new fiscal plans.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ manufacturing is on track for a strong Q1, but trade uncertainty looms over the rest of the year.
- The EU’s retaliation against US metals tariffs still leaves a small overall share of trade directly affected.
- EU import tariffs point to upside risk to consumer price inflation in core goods, in theory.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The range of economic outcomes in the Eurozone is widening; be ready for whiplash in the surveys.
- High-stakes negotiations between the EU and the US in Q2, on tariffs, Ukraine, NATO and Greenland.
- Mixed economic data in Germany; is industrial production finally rebounding?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany has fired a fiscal bazooka, which won’t go unnoticed by the ECB today.
- Swiss inflation fell further in February, to 0.3%; we think this is a trough, for now.
- We expect the SNB to cut by 25bp later this month, marking the final reduction in this easing cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU’s first defence package contains only a small element of joint loans; more will be needed soon.
- EZ unemployment remains pinned at a record low, though we think it will start rising soon, slowly.
- Markets see tariff risks as dovish for ECB policy, but the economic data are pulling in the other direction.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
