7 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Another French PM bites the dust and soft Q3 data to start the week

• France has lost another Prime Minister; how many more times will Mr. Macron play the same hand? 
• Eurozone retail sales and Spanish industrial production growth likely slowed in Q3. 
• The PMIs point to continued weakness in EZ construction, but investor sentiment is still upbeat.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Not pretty, but the official numbers are better.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August 2025

In one line: On track for a boost to Q3 GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Nothing to see, the trend is flat.

EZ Datanote: PMIs, Switzerland, September 2025

In on line: Rebounding, but tariff-sensitive manufacturing is weakening.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Hot. 

2 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Dovish decimals in the EZ HICP hide an overall hawkish report

• Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish. 
• We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December. 
• We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Risks tilted to an upside surprise in the CPI; jobless claims should fall back next month.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Sep/Aug 2025

In one line: Inflation up, but less than we expected; spending, ex-services is flat.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, August 2025

In one line: On track for a small decline in Q3. 

1 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor All set for a slight upside surprise in the EZ HICP today

• A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%. 
• We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data. 
• German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued. 

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Decent headline, dovish selling price expectations.

30 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Downside surprise in Spain lowers our EZ HICP forecast, slightly

• Inflation in Spain rose by less than we expected, pulling down our EZ HICP forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.3%. 
• The ESI rose in September and still signals low recession risk in the Eurozone. 
• The IAB labour-market survey in Germany is on a tear, but other surveys are less optimistic.

EZ Datanote: Inflation & Retail Sales, Spain Sep/Aug 2025

EZ Datanote: ECB CES, August 2025

In one line: Another one for relatively hawkish policymakers.

EZ Datanote: GER/FRA Consumer Confidence and EZ Money Supply, Oct, Sep & Aug 2025

In one line: Stability in consumer confidence; robust details in EZ money supply. 

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Eine Enttäuschung!

25 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Tumble in the IFO cancels out upbeat PMI in Germany

• The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier. 
• German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services. 
• We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, September 2025

In one line: That’s more like it, but upturn in manufacturing is on borrowed time.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, September 2025

In one line: Political brinkmanship comes at a cost.