Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Chartbook Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- EZ GDP growth was stung by falling inventories in Q3, offsetting a rise in public and private spending.
- The slowdown in investment is intensifying, but the outlook for household consumption is brightening.
- We now think EZ GDP will rise by 0.5% this year, and next year too; no upward inflation pressures here.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- An ECB pivot is underway; it will be confirmed at next week’s policy meeting, and by the new forecasts.
- The January HICP report and wage data remain risks to our call for a first rate cut in March.
- Early data from France and Spain suggest euro area manufacturing slowed further at the start of Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell in November and has now been in line with the SNB’s target for six months...
- ...It will likely slide further in H1 next year, after a probable small base-effects driven rise in December.
- Coupled with weak growth, the stars should align for the SNB to start cutting its key rate by March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation fell sharply in November, widening the gap between the reality and the ECB’s forecasts.
- January HICP is key for the 2024 inflation outlook; we look for a return to normal in m/m pricing.
- The ECB’s hawkish facade will soon crack; look out for a shift in messaging at the December meeting.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in Germany and Spain undershot consensus in November; will EZ HICP do the same?
- German inflation will snap back in December due to base effects in energy; the core is falling rapidly.
- Core inflation in Spain declined sharply in November, and the downturn has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE EZ ECONOMY IS SLIPPING INTO RECESSION...
- ...WHEN WILL THE ECB’S MESSAGE SHIFT?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money supply is not falling as fast as it was earlier in the year, but it is still declining...
- ...Lending growth, meanwhile, is fading, which bodes ill for our call for a rebound in GDP in H1 2024.
- The package holiday CPI can be volatile in November; risks are tilted to the downside this week.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ PMI for November indicate that the slowdown in activity eased midway through Q4…
- ...But we still think the Eurozone economy is now in a technical recession.
- ECB accounts shows that policymakers are surprised over how quickly financial conditions are tightening.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Europe is sitting pretty on energy so far this winter; prices are low and gas inventories are full to the brim.
- The current trend in oil and gas prices indicates EZ inflation could hit 1.5% by the middle of 2024.
- Asia and North America have taken over from Russia as marginal energy suppliers to Europe.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Negotiated wage growth in the EZ accelerated slightly in Q3, likely boosted by Germany.
- Market expectations and ECB communication are now wildly at odds; something has to give soon.
- We still see scope for easing early next year, but this call depends on a shift in language in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Today’s negotiated wage figures likely will show that wage growth eased in Q3, but only marginally.
- Construction output edged up in September; survey data suggest this was reversed in October...
- ...We think the sector will be a drag on growth again in Q4; luckily it accounts for only 5% of EZ GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Higher real interest rates will likely keep precautionary savings high, raising the savings rate further...
- ...If it rises gradually beyond our baseline by end- 2025, say to 18%, spending would fall next year...
- ...But it would need to rise much further, and much quicker, for the EZ recession we expect to last longer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Real rates in the EZ are now rising, even as the ECB stops hiking; we still see room for easing in Q1.
- The private sector’s interest rate costs will rise in 2024, even if the ECB holds or even eases slightly.
- Core inflation in France is now falling, EZ industry is still in recession, and EZ net trade likely rose in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone