Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- EZ sovereigns have been largely spared in the global bond-market rout, but French bonds remain fragile.
- Foreigners own more than half of government bonds in France, with Japanese savings a key swing factor.
- We think Japan owns around €165B-worth of French government bonds, or 5% of French GDP.
- Inflation in both the EZ and Switzerland fell below the respective central-bank targets in May.
- In the EZ, the decline solidifies the need for a rate cut this month, and we look for another one in Q3.
- In Switzerland, deflation is likely to become a mainstay, so brace for a 50bp rate cut from the SNB.
- A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
- The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
- The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.
- The EC’s new economic forecasts see a ‘Goldilocks’ boom next year; the economy won’t be that lucky.
- We see stronger growth in Germany than the EC next year, but weaker in France and Spain.
- The EC’s forecast for EZ inflation in 2026, at 1.7%, rests on too dovish energy and core goods forecasts.
- EZ construction output is slowing after a strong finish to 2024, but leading indicators are improving.
- The EZ current account surplus soared in March, reflecting tariff front-running in goods.
- Portfolio outflows fell sharply in March, and likely crashed outright in April.
- EZ headline inflation is about to fall to 2%, helping to get further ECB easing over the line, but how much?
- Survey data continue to signal significant upside risk to food inflation; energy inflation will rebound too.
- Services inflation will drop sharply in May but is set to be sticky around 3%.
- We look for broad-based strength in the surveys for May, but we think it will be temporary.
- The Eurozone’s trade surplus soared in Q1, boosted by tariff front-running in pharmaceuticals.
- The EZ runs a deficit with the US in services, but a surplus if intellectual property is excluded.
- Front-loaded fiscal stimulus can add 0.5pp to German growth this year, in the best-case scenario.
- Defence spending is poised to accelerate after a slow start to the year, but the multiplier is low.
- Front-loading of infrastructure spending via €100B in funding for local government is a key upside risk.
- A temporary reprieve in the US–China trade war is worth far less than financial markets are assuming.
- Early signs suggest Mr. Trump will go hard on the EU, keeping uncertainty for the EZ economy elevated.
- Isabel Schnabel is coming out swinging for ECB hawks, but will her argument carry the day?
- The EU’s announcement of retaliation against US tariffs is an attempt to get Washington to the table.
- Brussels’ WTO case against the US indicates that it won’t accept 10% as a floor for tariffs.
- EU purchases of energy, agricultural products and defence goods are the clearest route to a deal.
- Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
- ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response.
- We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.
- The Eurozone economy was stronger in the first quarter than both we and the ECB expected.
- The pick-up in growth will prove short-lived, as trade uncertainty bites down on investment.
- Country data point to EZ inflation at 2.1% in April; we still see a chunky upside surprise in the core.
- Spanish growth slowed in Q1 but still comfortably outperformed growth in the rest of the big four.
- The SNB is easing policy without cutting rates, signalling a desire to steer clear of negative rates.
- Money and credit data remain positive on outlook for the EZ economy but tariffs still threaten.
- Market expectations for the ECB’s deposit rate to stay below 2.0% next year are a sitting duck.
- Bunds are fairly valued at 2.5%; fiscal policy poses upside risk, but trade wars pull in the other direction.
- EURUSD is overshooting our models; EZ equities are set to struggle for a while longer.
- Our forecasts for Q1 GDP and the April HICP imply upside risk for ECB rate expectations this week.
- Robust national business surveys point to upside risk to our Q2 forecasts for GDP in Germany and France.
- Tariff front-running seems to be just what the doctor ordered for manufacturing in France.
- We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit.
- The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
- Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.
- The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
- Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
- Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.
- Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices.
- Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind.
- Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
- Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
- ‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.
- The 90-day delay to US tariffs, excluding China, is a stay of execution only; uncertainty remains high.
- Italian Prime Minister Meloni is the first EU leader to announce support to exporters hit by US tariff hikes.
- Italian public debt issuance will remain high this year, keeping BTP yields elevated.
