Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Europe will need to raise annual defence spending by €250B-to-450B over the next eight years.
- A joint EU financing programme for defence is coming; it could be a big package, close to €1T.
- Inflation and a low multiplier will eat up most of the boost to real GDP from rising defence spending.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Political uncertainty is soaring in Europe, but EZ equities have never felt better; what’s up?
- We think markets are betting on another Hamiltonian moment in Europe, this time on defence policy.
- Europe will rise to the challenges it faces, but have markets bought into the hype too strongly?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Bunds have hovered close to fair value since the beginning of the year, according to our models.
- US Treasuries and Schatz point to upside risks to Bund yields, but fundamentals pull the other way.
- Near-term risks to Bund yields are tilted to the downside, before bear-steepening in H2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have only a minimal direct impact on EZ exports and GDP…
- …But the constant threat of tariffs is raising uncertainty for firms, adding to downside risks for capex.
- The CDU/CSU remains in pole position in Germany, but it is ceding ground to the AFD.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Bonds rallied yesterday on dovish headlines in the ECB’s wage tracker, but the details beg to differ.
- The EU is ready to strike back at US tariffs, but we still see a low risk of a prolonged tariff spat.
- ‘Habemus budget’ in France; industrial output fell in December, but it will rebound in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air.
- A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3.
- EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
