9 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor A fragile truce at the ECB on holding the deposit rate at 2%

• The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months. 
• The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening. 
• Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes. 

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Solid production numbers, but net trade in goods remain under pressure.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, July 2025

In one line: As we expected, but where was the Airbus-driven upward revision?

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Better; inflation pressures remain strong despite subdued activity.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes. 

4 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're turning bullish on Italy; GDP will rebound in H2

• The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
• We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
• The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving. 

2 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ unemployment rate still pinned at a record low

• The number of people out of work dropped by the most in over three years in July… 
• ...As a result, the EZ unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in July and is likely to have held steady in August. 
• Labour-market data provide little ammunition for ECB doves in their fight for another rate cut.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Hinting at a fall in Q3. 

EZ Datanote: ESI, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Unwelcome rise in services selling price expectations.

EZ Datanote: EZ Money Supply & ISTAT, Jul/Aug 2025

In one line: Steady, and solid, growth in EZ money supply.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q2

In one line: Stung by crash in net trade. 

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, September

In one line: Not pretty.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, August 2025

In one line: Grim, and little scope for near-term improvement.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade Balance, Germany, June 2025

In one line: Industrial output will be revised up; net trade was a drag on GDP growth in Q2.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, June 2025

In one line: No boost from Airbus orders?

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, June 2025

In one line: Soaring as transport and refineries kick into gear

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, July 2025

In one line: EZ inflation in July was not the dovish slam dunk we were expecting.

EZ Datanote: Advance inflation, France, July

In one line: No change; we still see the EZ HICP at 1.8% y/y.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy & Germany, Q2 2025

In one line: German and Italian GDP both fall by 0.1% q/q; available data now point to 0.1% increase in EZ GDP.