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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

1 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A 50bp ECB rate cut in December drifts further into oblivion

  • A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December. 
  • Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too. 
  • The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Nothing in Q3 GDP to spook the ECB into a 50bp cut in December

  • EZ GDP rose more than we and the ECB had expected in Q3, and growth picked up from Q2. 
  • France, Spain and Germany all contributed positively, while GDP stagnated in Italy. 
  • Advance CPI data in Germany and Spain point to upside risks to EZ core inflation today.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor October surveys will extend dovish re-rating in EZ rate expectations

  • The dovish shift in expectations for ECB policy and interest rates continues apace. 
  • Soft PMIs will add to the conviction in markets that an accelerated easing cycle is underway… 
  • …But next week’s calendar will likely be more challenging for dovish EZ rate expectations.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor EURUSD will take time to reach 1.15, but it will get there eventually

  • EURUSD won’t make it to 1.15 by year-end, but we still think it will get there, eventually, in H1 2025. 
  • Our inflation, interest rate and GDP forecasts signal upside risks for EURUSD from its current level…
  • …But the trend in political uncertainty points to downside risk to this call. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor A good day for ECB doves, but easing will be gradual from here

  • ECB doves claimed a big victory yesterday, but we doubt this is the start of a much quicker easing cycle. 
  • The central bank is now more focused on downside risks to growth; all eyes on growth data in Q4. 
  • EZ inflation fell sharply in September, but it will rebound soon; core inflation is set to dip in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor France's fiscal blues will knock 0.3pp off GDP growth next year

  • We still think French GDP rose solidly in Q3, despite hard data pointing to downside risks. 
  • Government spending in France is set to slow sharply next year, but the hit to GDP should be minor. 
  • We now see GDP in France growing by 1.0% in 2025, 0.3pp below our previous forecast.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ profit margins are falling; why is the labour market resilient?

  • EZ corporate profit margins are falling rapidly, underpinning continued ECB policy easing. 
  • A decline in work-hours since Covid partly explains labour-hoarding in the Eurozone… 
  • …But fears of labour shortages when the cycle rebounds and no recession are likely bigger drivers.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italian GDP growth picked up in Q3; no German recession

  • Italian business surveys soured in Q3, but our Nowcast models point to a pick-up in GDP growth. 
  • Destatis finally published German retail sales data after a four-month hiatus… 
  • ...They were positive, as we suspected, so we have again removed a German recession from our call.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Germany likely fell into a technical recession in Q3

  • We're lowering our Q3 growth forecast for Germany; we now think the economy fell into recession… 
  • …But beware, Nowcast models in Germany are less reliable than usual; Q3 GDP is a true wild card. 
  • France won't cut public spending by €40B next year, but a deficit of 5% of GDP is doable, and then some.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor No recovery in German industry, despite August's jump in output

  • German manufacturing came roaring back in August, but output fell again in September. 
  • We estimate industrial production in Germany fell by 1.4% q/q in Q3, a touch worse than in Q2. 
  • Look past the fall in spending on non-durables for a more optimistic story on the EZ consumer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook

  • Comments from BdF Governor François Villeroy de Galhau all but guarantee a 25bp rate cut this month. 
  • EZ rate expectations and bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term outlook for inflation. 
  • We’ve lowered our bond yield forecasts, but still see bear-steepening of the yield curve next year. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor France's budget deficit has to be reined in, but how?

  • French households celebrate falling inflation, but confidence-sapping tax hikes loom on the horizon. 
  • France’s deficit will hit 6% of GDP soon without corrective action; markets won’t let that slide. 
  • Spending cuts alone won’t reduce the deficit in France, tax hikes will be needed too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame

  • The EZ PMIs plunged in September, as the boost from the Summer Olympics ended. 
  • Our EZ Nowcast for Q3 GDP looks ugly, but we think it is misleadingly pessimistic at this point. 
  • The ECB will consider an October rate cut if non-energy goods inflation stays subdued in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor The Fed goes big, but the ECB will stay focused on domestic data

  • The Fed’s 50bp rate cut increases the chance of an ECB rate cut in October, but only marginally…
  • …The bar remains high for a third ECB cut next month; September core goods inflation is key.
  • The EZ current account surplus has rebounded, but it will roll over in due course.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Core goods inflation will determine the ECB's move in October

  • Falling energy inflation will pull headline HICP below 2% in September; we look for 1.8% year-over-year. 
  • Obsessing about services inflation is ‘so yesterday’; all eyes on non-energy goods in September and Q4. 
  • An October rate cut is back in play if core goods inflation fails to rebound in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Mr. Draghi's EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules

  • Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations. 
  • We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation. 
  • EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor "Que sera sera"; Ms. Lagarde is mute on the ECB's next move

  • The ECB cut by 25bp as expected; an October cut is now a tall order, but a December cut is back on. 
  • The rise in the ECB’s core inflation forecast will prevent the Bank from being mugged by reality in Q4. 
  • Early signs show that the ECB is noticing the sustained weakness in EZ domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Germany's economy teetering on the brink of recession, again

  • Germany’s economy is now in recession, judging by the trend in investment and survey data…
  • …But we think rising consumers’ spending will just about keep the economy’s head above water in Q3.
  • We’re lowering our German GDP growth forecasts for Q3, Q4 and Q1 by a cumulative 0.3pp.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a second 25bp rate cut from the ECB on Thursday

  • The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, as widely expected, but what happens in Q4? 
  • We see a higher chance than markets of an October cut, and a lower probability of December easing. 
  • Will the ECB lift its Q4 core inflation forecasts this week? We think so, but how far?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor France's budget deficit to barely shrink this year; what will EC say?

  • France’s budget deficit won’t shrink much this year, but tough negotiations on the 2025 budget loom. 
  • September is a key month for budget negotiations; a hung parliament points to high risk of a stalemate. 
  • The composite PMIs for Spain and Italy, despite rising in August, point to slower GDP growth in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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