Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Chartbook Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- The Fed’s 50bp rate cut increases the chance of an ECB rate cut in October, but only marginally…
- …The bar remains high for a third ECB cut next month; September core goods inflation is key.
- The EZ current account surplus has rebounded, but it will roll over in due course.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Falling energy inflation will pull headline HICP below 2% in September; we look for 1.8% year-over-year.
- Obsessing about services inflation is ‘so yesterday’; all eyes on non-energy goods in September and Q4.
- An October rate cut is back in play if core goods inflation fails to rebound in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations.
- We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation.
- EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB cut by 25bp as expected; an October cut is now a tall order, but a December cut is back on.
- The rise in the ECB’s core inflation forecast will prevent the Bank from being mugged by reality in Q4.
- Early signs show that the ECB is noticing the sustained weakness in EZ domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s economy is now in recession, judging by the trend in investment and survey data…
- …But we think rising consumers’ spending will just about keep the economy’s head above water in Q3.
- We’re lowering our German GDP growth forecasts for Q3, Q4 and Q1 by a cumulative 0.3pp.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, as widely expected, but what happens in Q4?
- We see a higher chance than markets of an October cut, and a lower probability of December easing.
- Will the ECB lift its Q4 core inflation forecasts this week? We think so, but how far?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- France’s budget deficit won’t shrink much this year, but tough negotiations on the 2025 budget loom.
- September is a key month for budget negotiations; a hung parliament points to high risk of a stalemate.
- The composite PMIs for Spain and Italy, despite rising in August, point to slower GDP growth in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE ECB WILL CUT INTEREST RATES TWICE MORE THIS YEAR
- SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER LOOK MOST LIKELY TO US
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The downturn in the EZ composite PMI was halted by the Olympics in France; only temporarily we think.
- The PMIs point to firming growth in services, while manufacturing is still stuck in recession.
- A big drop in Q2 wage growth seals the deal for a September cut, and helps our call for an October cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Construction output jumped in June but still fell over the second quarter as a whole…
- ...This is consistent with a drop in construction capex, which accounts for nearly half of investment in GDP.
- The outlook for the sector is bleak; it will remain a drag on growth for the rest of this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation data suggest market pricing for 70bp-worth of easing this year is much too ambitious.
- The ECB will cut by 25bp in September; we still see a second cut in October, but this is a very close call.
- Inflation in food, core goods and energy are all set to firm in Q4, and services inflation will fall only slightly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The 0.3% increase in Eurozone GDP in Q2 was confirmed, despite industry remaining in recession.
- The service sector again drove growth; we do not trust the reported fall in service production in May.
- Productivity is not sliding as fast as in recent quarters; the ECB will welcome this development.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurostoxx 50 is currently priced for negative medium-term returns, based on book value.
- Margins are a wild card for EZ equities, but unless they remain near record highs, prices will fall further.
- We look for a further 5-to-10% decline in EZ equities as margins compress and earnings growth slows.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German manufacturing output rebounded modestly in June, but likely fell back in July.
- Hard data are now consistent with the reported GDP decline in Q2, but what happened to consumption?
- We’re nudging down our Q3 GDP growth forecast in Germany by 0.1pp to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will provide liquidity via LTROs before resorting to an emergency rate cut.
- We now think the ECB will cut by 25bp in September and October, but not in December.
- Markets now agree with our SNB call, so we’re sticking to our guns for two more cuts this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Eurozone unemployment rose slightly in June, but the underlying trend is still flat.
- Surveys point to downside risks to employment growth and upside risks to unemployment in H2…
- …Yet our own GDP growth forecasts point to a better near-term outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation was slightly hotter than we expected in July but is still on track for a sharp fall in August.
- Disinflation in core goods and food will reverse soon, creating a challenge for the ECB in Q4.
- We still see an ECB rate cut in September, but no longer in December; we now have two cuts in H1-25.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany was a laggard in Q2, again; GDP jumped in Spain, and rose solidly in Italy and France.
- We think the Q2 GDP numbers have increased the probability of a second ECB rate cut in September.
- German HICP inflation was hot, but Spain’s was soft; we still see EZ inflation stable at 2.5% in July.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB’s CES suggests young people’s inflation expectations have increased since the pandemic…
- …This, in turn, implies that tail-risks for inflation have shifted to the upside, and above 2%.
- Relative inflation expectations for women and low-income workers seem correlated with wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
EZ LEADING INDICATORS ARE THROWING OFF MIXED SIGNALS
- ...WHICH ONES SHOULD YOU TRUST?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
