Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Gabriella Dickens Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
- Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it?
- A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year.
- Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
- Sébastien Lecornu plays his trump card, but will suspending pension reform be enough?
- Mr. Macron will come under rising pressure to call new elections if RN continues to rise in the polls.
- The cyclical improvement in France’s budget deficit looks set to continue in H2 as tax revenues rise.
- Germany will raise its public debt burden by more than €1T over the next decade; what will this fund?
- A sustained rise in defence spending to 3.5% ramps up the pressure on public finances from 2027.
- The German government’s plan implies front-loaded investment from special funds starting next year.
- German auto output rebounded in September, but will this be included in the first Q3 GDP estimate?
- Construction investment rose in Q3, but net trade and consumption likely remained sluggish.
- We now think the first Q3 GDP estimate in Germany will show that output fell by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- The reversal of tariff front-running is weighing on German export orders, but is the worst over?…
- …Revisions to sales data suggest that industrial output was weaker in Q3 than we thought.
- Early data indicate that EZ industrial production fell by 0.2% in August, partially reversing the rise in July.
- France has lost another Prime Minister; how many more times will Mr. Macron play the same hand?
- Eurozone retail sales and Spanish industrial production growth likely slowed in Q3.
- The PMIs point to continued weakness in EZ construction, but investor sentiment is still upbeat.
- Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish.
- We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.
- A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%.
- We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data.
- German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued.
- Inflation in Spain rose by less than we expected, pulling down our EZ HICP forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.3%.
- The ESI rose in September and still signals low recession risk in the Eurozone.
- The IAB labour-market survey in Germany is on a tear, but other surveys are less optimistic.
- The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier.
- German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services.
- We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.
- The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline.
- The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output.
- ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.
- EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
- We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17.
- If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda.
- We think a rebound in inflation will now close the window on further monetary policy easing.
- Risks are asymmetric, however; the ECB will either cut or hold in the next three-to-six months.
- A near-term downside surprise in core inflation and further euro strength will prompt doves to pounce.
- Our fair-value model for bunds points to little near-term upside to yields, due to falling US rates.
- We estimate that fiscal stimulus in Germany will add around 30bp to bund yields between now and 2027.
- Overall, we see a slow rise in bund yields to 3% by 2027, implying limited near-term upside.
- The ECB stands pat, despite lowering its headline and core inflation forecast for 2027; why?
- A more balanced growth outlook and a relatively high neutral rate mean the ECB is happy, for now.
- Has the bar for easing been lifted or is the risk of a Q4 cut now higher? It could be both, actually.
- A cyclical rise in tax revenues provides an incentive for political brinkmanship to continue in France.
- Industrial output signals upside risk to investment but how will consumers respond to falling incomes?
- Growth in France will drop to the bottom of the pile of the major four economies next year.
- The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months.
- The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening.
- Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes.
- The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
- We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
- The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving.
