Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist) Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: A second straight fall.
In one line: Another fall in inflation expectations.
In one line: IESI averaged less in Q2 than Q1.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks for our Q2 consumption call.
In one line: A slight rebound in inflation and consumers’ spending on course for a better Q2 than Q1
- French and Spanish headline inflation rose in June, pointing to upside risk to our EZ call.
- We are sticking to our forecast for an increase in the EZ headline to 2.0% from 1.9%.
- That marks a small rise, which need not worry the ECB, especially given stable inflation expectations.
THE NEXT STEPS FOR THE ECB ARE FINELY BALANCED...
- ...WE STILL SEE A FINAL CUT TO 1.75%, SETTING UP HIKES NEXT YEAR
In one line: A fall after improving throughout Q2.
- Early national data suggest the fall in EZ consumer confidence in June was focused outside the big two.
- The details indicate that risks to spending in Q2 are still to the downside in France and Germany.
- Indeed figures show slowing wage growth in Italy in May, but a pick-up in France and Spain.
In one line: Unchanged at a weak level.
- Falling oil prices and a strong euro are playing into the hands of ECB doves, for now.
- Services inflation is a key upside risk in the June HICP, but we still see core inflation at 2% by August.
- Fiscal details and a US-EU trade deal could swing the September meeting in favour of ECB hawks.
In one line: At a one-year high, but still consistent with slower growth.
- German business surveys are on the rise, but the hard data are not; at least, not yet…
- ...The cabinet approved the 2025 supplementary budget; parliament must do likewise by September.
- The rise in public spending and capex will feed through only in Q4 or, more likely, from 2026.
In one line: Holding steady
In one line: Are we too downbeat on Germany?
In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.
- The EZ PMI held steady in June, and averaged broadly the same in Q2 as in Q1…
- ...But EZ GDP will not repeat its 0.6% growth in Q1; we look for GDP to stagnate this quarter.
- Demand is recovering but, once tariff front-running ends, will likely correct; price pressures are easing.
In one line: Recovery from March and April’s drops has ended already
In one line: Stable, but weak.
In one line: A decent start to Q2.
