13 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Investors give the EU-US trade deal a thumbs down

• The ZEW confirms the message from the Sentix: investors don’t like the EU-US trade deal. 
• Investor sentiment indices still point to a rise in the PMI in the coming months, but we doubt it. 
• The EZ economy will struggle now that US tariffs have risen further.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, June 2025

In one line: A small increase in both June and Q2 overall.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Where is the light at the end of the tunnel?

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, June 2025

In one line: Decent, and Q3 looks set to be good too.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Investors give EU-US trade deal a thumbs down.

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Ugly all round.  

5 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Hawkish inflation read in Switzerland; is a recession ahead?

• Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
• ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs. 
• We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance. 

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a record low. 

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.

1 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation in July not as decisively dovish as we were expecting

• HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
• The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
• EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP/ESI, EZ, Q2 2025/July 2025

In one line: EZ GDP growth slows from tariff front-running boost in Q1. 

30 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spain still doing better than most and will continue to outperform

• Spanish GDP rose by a whopping 0.7% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, after 0.6% in Q1. 
• Growth in the Iberian country will now likely slow, but not as much as we previously thought. 
• The Spanish and Belgian data—released yesterday—are still consistent with 0.2% growth in the EZ in Q2.

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, July 2025

In one line: September cut less certain?

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate decision, July 2025

In one line: Still on track for a final rate cut in September.

PM Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Nothing in here to suggest an ECB rate cut today.

PM Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, July 2025

In one line: The German economy was barely growing in July.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Up, but only to a four-month high. 

24 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor BTP-Bund spread to fall to 30bp early next year

• Supply and demand analysis on BTPs would suggest a lower yield over the coming years…
•  ...But more accurate spread analysis implies it will fall only slightly from current levels out to 2027. 
• We expect the BTP-Bund spread to fall to 50bp by year-end and to 30bp by Q1 next year.

EZ Datanote: ECB BLS, EZ, Q2 2025

In one line: Lending standards still tight while demand for loans is rising.