Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Held back by a drop in energy.
In one line: Not as bad as in France, Q3 will still be decent.
- Industrial production fell in Spain in July, though less than in France, while it rose in Italy and Germany.
- EZ industry likely eked out some growth at the start of Q3 and we look for a better Q3 than Q2.
- Services production fell in June, however, and surveys point to further weakness in Q3.
In one line: Down sharply again.
In one line: Growth slows as tariff front-running disappears.
In one line: SNB cut this month still on, just.
- Swiss inflation held steady at first glance, but the details are dovish.
- Leading indicators point to a gradual fall in inflation out to year-end, in contrast to the SNB’s forecasts.
- It’s a close call, but we think the risks to the outlook tip the balance towards a final rate cut this month.
In one line: Down to a record low.
In one line: Still pointing to downside risks.
In one line: Germany fared worse than initially expected in Q2.
In one line: Down further below its long-run average.
In one line: Down again but up over Q2 still.
In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders.
In one line: Up, but output is still falling.
In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.
- The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected…
- ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August.
- Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.
In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September.
- Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose.
- Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs.
- For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
