Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Datanotes Daily Monitor Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Revised down, the ECB will still stand pat tomorrow.
In one line: Down, mirroring fall in PMI.
In one line: Down but still one for the ECB hawks.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will still be better than Q3.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
- The EZ composite PMI slid to a three-month low but still points to GDP rising more in Q4 than Q3.
- The detail indicates stronger employment growth and so a still-tight labour market…
- ...As well as rising input costs and greater inflation pressures in 2026.
- Our spot forecasts for EZ GDP have outperformed the consensus and the ECB so far this year…
- …We have improved our EZ inflation forecasts by incorporating our new energy model.
- We misjudged the dovishness of the new SNB Chairman, affecting our forecasting track record.
In one line: A decent start to Q4.
In one line: Unrevised, lowest in the big four.
In one line: A fall is coming in January.
In one line: On hold, as we expect it to be until early 2027.
- The SNB held its policy rate at 0% at its final meeting of the year yesterday, as widely expected.
- Next year will be boring for Swiss central bank watchers; we expect no change in rates until 2027.
- The SNB thinks policy is expansionary; it will likely hike next, in 2027, as inflation nears the 1% mark.
In one line: Italian industry will be back on track after stumbling in October.
- The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
- Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
- The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.
In one line: Rise in surplus propped up by trade with EU partners.
- German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4.
- Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3.
- Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.
- German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry.
- French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October.
- The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.
In one line: Ending the year on a slightly more cheerful note.
In one line: Up sharply; autos yet to reverse fall in August.
