Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Emerging Asia Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- EZ consumer confidence dipped at year-end, but consumers’ spending should hold up anyway.
- Risks are balanced; inflation in items bought regularly is rising, but the saving rate remains high.
- EZ current account figures show services exports started Q4 on a weak footing, the same as goods.
- The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% for the third straight meeting yesterday, as widely expected.
- Its new forecasts, showing growth at potential and inflation at target, suggest no further easing.
- The next rate move will likely be up, in 2027; we see two 25bp hikes, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%.
- EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up.
- It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today.
- Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.
- The EZ composite PMI slid to a three-month low but still points to GDP rising more in Q4 than Q3.
- The detail indicates stronger employment growth and so a still-tight labour market…
- ...As well as rising input costs and greater inflation pressures in 2026.
- Our spot forecasts for EZ GDP have outperformed the consensus and the ECB so far this year…
- …We have improved our EZ inflation forecasts by incorporating our new energy model.
- We misjudged the dovishness of the new SNB Chairman, affecting our forecasting track record.
- The SNB held its policy rate at 0% at its final meeting of the year yesterday, as widely expected.
- Next year will be boring for Swiss central bank watchers; we expect no change in rates until 2027.
- The SNB thinks policy is expansionary; it will likely hike next, in 2027, as inflation nears the 1% mark.
- The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
- Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
- The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.
- German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4.
- Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3.
- Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.
- German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry.
- French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October.
- The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.
- The EZ composite PMI was revised up in November, pointing to stronger growth in Q4...
- ...But early hard data for October are weak, and the PMI points to softness in construction.
- Switzerland’s PMIs suggest recession risk remains despite the US-Swiss trade deal.
- Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
- It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
- The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.
- Italian GDP was held back in Q3 by another drop in inventories; these should rebound next year…
- ...Growth will pick up in 2026 as the outlook for net trade is also now brightening.
- In Switzerland, GDP will bounce back in Q4 from the drop in Q3, but growth will slow next year.
- The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy.
- The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data.
- It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
- Swiss GDP fell in Q3, by 0.5% on the quarter, more than reversing the 0.2% increase in Q2.
- We no longer forecast a recession in H2, as US trade tariffs are now being lowered to 15% from 39%.
- Risks are to the downside, but we still doubt that the SNB will ease policy in December.
- EZ industrial production had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3, if you believe Eurostat’s figures.
- Construction, meanwhile, is set to have been a drag, while services pulled GDP up by 0.2%.
- Surveys point to a jump in services output ahead, but meagre moves in construction and industry.
- ECB doves hoping for help from the euro to pull a December cut over the line will be disappointed…
- ...We expect a further softening in the euro to 1.15 by year-end, before a slight pick-up next year, to 1.17.
- Spanish and Italian surveys for early Q4 are too upbeat, in our view.
- Swiss inflation eased to within touching distance of 0%, the bottom of the SNB’s inflation target range.
- We look for further declines, in contrast to the SNB’s forecast for inflation to rise.
- Still, the SNB will hold off from further easing this year and probably also next year.
- The ECB BLS showed banks tightened lending standards in Q3, boding ill for capex and spending…
- ...But these downbeat messages can safely be ignored, given other survey data.
- The first business survey for Italy for October suggests growth there is picking up, as in Germany.
- Lending to the private sector is slowing at the margin but underlying momentum remains solid…
- ...Our measure of the credit impulse points to EZ GDP growth of around 0.5% q/q in Q4.
- Germany’s IFO survey adds to the message from the PMI that a rebound there will lead the way in Q4.
