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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor Chartbook Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

16 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Energy inflation will fall in coming months, but Q4 upside risks loom

  • Energy inflation remains on track for a big fall in coming months, but it will rebound into year-end.
  • EZ headline inflation will fall to within touching distance of 2% in August, but will snap back in Q4.
  • Swiss GDP outpaced the Eurozone average in Q2, as industry fared better than we anticipated.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italy raises tax for wealthy...it's not enough; SNB tries to weaken CHF

  • Italy’s new wealth tax on foreign income will help public finances but won’t balance the books… 
  • ...Spending needs to come down, and significantly, to get Italy away from a near 6% deficit this year.
  • As expected, the SNB intervened to stem the rise in the franc last week; more CHF sales will be needed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss GDP preview: GDP growth underperformed the EZ in Q2

  • Swiss industry likely had another tough quarter in Q2 and services turnover data to May disappoint. 
  • We doubt GDP fell, however, as implied by the PMI; it has underestimated growth since Q4 2022. 
  • We have pencilled in zero growth in Switzerland in Q2, after a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Are we seeing an unsustainable housing boom in Spain? Unlikely.

  • House prices in Spain are currently higher than during the house price bubble in 2005-to-2008… 
  • ...But the current increase doesn’t look unsustainable and household finances are sound. 
  • We see little scope for a sharp correction in house prices in the coming quarters in Spain.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Super Tuesday likely to reveal that EZ Q2 GDP growth beat consensus

  • Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain… 
  • ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed. 
  • So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Bank credit tightening eased again in Q2; the trend will continue

  • Household demand for credit rose, and the fall in firms’ demand decelerated in Q2…
  • ...Banks tightened standards at a slower pace than in past quarters, supporting lending growth…
  • ...The subsequent pick-up in GDP growth will be gradual, however; not something for the ECB to fear.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Revising up our Q2 GDP growth call for Italy, marginally

  • Monthly hard data for Italy have been better than expected; our new nowcast points to faster growth… 
  • ...but business surveys suggest GDP growth is unlikely to budge from Q1’s 0.3%. 
  • Advance numbers suggest that EZ negotiated wage growth slowed in Q2, despite firmer Indeed data.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor House prices in the Eurozone will fare better than previously thought

  • The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
  • ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates. 
  • We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor No fireworks from Sintra; ECB comments in line with our rate call

  • ECB President Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone in her Sintra speeches… 
  • ...But the main message from ECB speakers is that more rate cuts are on the way, data permitting. 
  • Overall, the Sintra conference left no mark on market-based and consensus rate expectations.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Spain is outperforming, on and off the football pitch

  • Revisions show that Spanish GDP rose by 0.8% on the quarter in Q1, more than previously thought.
  • More of the same is likely in coming quarters; survey and hard data are positive, especially in services.
  • Spain’s GDP will likely leap by 2.8% this year, in contrast to 0.8% in the Eurozone as a whole.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Two SNB cuts down, two more likely this year

  • The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
  • ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
  • expect.
    The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Another day, another wage figure points to the ECB on hold in July

  • The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1… 
  • ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany. 
  • Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will consumption growth save the day for Italy's economy?

  • Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
  • ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
  • We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Net trade will be a drag on EZ GDP growth in coming quarters

  • The EZ goods trade surplus widened in March, and net trade in goods likely boosted GDP in Q1.
  • Advance data from China as well as surveys suggest this boost is disappearing in Q2...
  • ...And we think rising imports means net trade is set to weigh on growth for the rest of the year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Where will investment fare worst in the EZ big four this year?

  • Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
  • ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
  • The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Rise in food inflation in April not the start of a new trend

  • Food inflation has declined steadily since peaking at 15.5% last year but now seems to be stabilising. 
  •  Surveys suggest it will hold steady just below 3% for now, but falling food PPI points to further downside. 
  •  Catalonia’s election will most likely lead to a PSC-led coalition government; Sanchez will be happy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Services drove EZ GDP in Q1, despite German industry recovery

  • EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
  • February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
  • The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor German output slides in March; EZ consumer goods spending flatlines

  • German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
  • ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
  • Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Still three more SNB cuts this year, despite rising inflation in April

  • Swiss inflation rose in April on the back of a broad- based increase in prices...
  • ...It should fall again to near 1% in coming months, though, so the SNB can continue its cutting cycle.
  • We continue to look for more rate cuts this year than the consensus; 75bp-worth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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