Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Chartbook Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- It will be a close call but we see more reasons for the SNB to cut its key policy rate next week than to hold.
- Inflation is low and set to fall, while other tools will not be as effective in fighting deflationary pressures.
- We look for the Swiss central bank to cut by 25bp to -0.25%, leaving it the lowest policy rate in the world.
- The Eurozone’s nominal goods trade surplus rose at the start of Q3, as imports fell further than exports.
- The bloc’s trade surplus with the US is now half what it was before the Trump administration took power.
- Net trade in goods will likely have a neutral impact on Q3 GDP, despite the increase in US tariffs in August.
- Industrial production fell in Spain in July, though less than in France, while it rose in Italy and Germany.
- EZ industry likely eked out some growth at the start of Q3 and we look for a better Q3 than Q2.
- Services production fell in June, however, and surveys point to further weakness in Q3.
- Swiss inflation held steady at first glance, but the details are dovish.
- Leading indicators point to a gradual fall in inflation out to year-end, in contrast to the SNB’s forecasts.
- It’s a close call, but we think the risks to the outlook tip the balance towards a final rate cut this month.
- The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected…
- ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August.
- Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.
- Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose.
- Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs.
- For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
