Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- Most near-real-time consumers’ spending indicators suggest it is holding up well in April.
- The trade war also hasn’t hit job postings, while Google searches for ‘unemployment’ are down.
- Leading indicators on production, meanwhile, reflect greater activity, boosted by tariff front-running.
- Soft April PMIs signal downside risk to our Q2 GDP call, but we still think tariff front-running will help.
- Demand for services is retreating, confirming that trade uncertainty is weighing on domestic demand.
- Manufacturing is holding the fort for now, with new orders recovering thanks to tariff front-running.
- Banks tightened lending standards less in Q1 than in Q4, but were already worried about tariffs in March…
- ...They expect to tighten lending standards further, while demand for loans among firms fell.
- We revise up our Swiss GDP forecasts, on the back of the 90-day pause to tariff hikes.
- Re-routing could lead to a bigger EZ trade surplus with the US, increasing the risk of higher US tariffs…
- ...One of the ways to stem the flow would be for the EU to hike its tariffs on China; it prefers not to.
- The EU is at great risk of being pulled into the US-Sino trade war, whether it wants to or not.
- Slower growth, coupled with a stronger CHF and lower oil prices, will keep Swiss inflation down.
- The SNB is likely to cut once more; we now expect the easing cycle to end in June.
- EZ house prices rose 4.2% last year and will increase again this year, as lower interest rates fuel demand.
- The markets’ verdict is clear; trade uncertainty is a disinflationary shock, but we’re not convinced.
- We now think the ECB will cut its policy rate later this month, by 25bp, for a terminal rate of 2.25%.
- A high export ratio for EZ industry means higher US tariffs are a risk; construction is looking better.
