25 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai front-running to the US is over, only pain and downside risks ahead

Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence