- In one line: Export recovery still on track, despite weaker headlines.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The H2 2023 recovery in Philippine sales hit a big speed-bump in Q1
Not the kind of deficit reduction we’d like to see
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
- …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
- Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food disinflation offsets impact from electricity tariff rise.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
- …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
- The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our final forecast for Thailand’s Q1 GDP sees growth slowing to just 0.7%, from 1.7% in Q4…
- …The slowdown in consumption is the main drag, alongside the fading yearly lift from net trade.
- The six-month bout of CPI deflation ended in April, as food and transport inflation returned to the black.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The six-month spell of Thai deflation comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Export-oriented ASEAN manufacturers continue to underperform
Food inflation in Indonesia finally turns a corner; more of this, please
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The turnaround in ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact, despite the April slip…
- …But the region’s more export-oriented countries are still underperforming; orders remain in the red.
- Indonesian inflation saw a positive downside surprise in April, as food inflation turned a corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Decent, and the drag from refined petroleum products should reverse in the short run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: External demand does the heavy lifting, thanks to helpful base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Back down to earth, and likely more pain ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
AN—UNWELCOME—FEELING OF DEJA VU FROM BI
- …GDP GROWTH IN DEVELOPED ASEAN PICKS UP IN Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print was driven by a strong recovery in net trade…
- …But less friendly base effects and still-soft export volumes point to growth slowing from Q2.
- All told, we have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.7%, from 3.4%, after Q1’s hot print.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s customs trade balance missed widely in March; the adjusted gap sank to a 19-month low…
- …Export leading indicators remain lacklustre, while import growth is getting a lift from global oil prices.
- Vietnam’s trade surplus collapsed in April; it looks like export growth truly has peaked, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Downward pressure on the Thai baht continues to intensify
Correction in Vietnamese exports bleeds into Q2
Ignore the headline; retail sales growth in Vietnam is still wobbling
Expect a further leg up in Vietnamese inflation in May, the likely peak
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We would choose the SBV if we had to pick the source of a third monetary policy shock this year.
- Malaysian headline and core inflation have been below 2.0% for over a quarter now...
- … And we see little risk of a blow-out to either figure, other than a mismanaged subsidy withdrawal.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI surprised yesterday with a 25bp hike, yet again citing a need to stabilise the IDR; this is just overkill.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth in March barely stayed in the black; price effects saved the day…
- …Real wage growth continues to tread water around zero percent, making a Q2 turnaround unlikely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
