- GDP growth in India bounced to 6.1% in Q1, from 4.5% in Q4, thanks mainly to a slowdown in imports.
- The main story is ongoing weakness in consumers; leading indicators continue to look abysmal.
- The Bank of Thailand’s policy overkill has gone into overdrive; the inflation war was won months ago.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Reports this week suggest that another BSP rate hike in February of at least 50bp is guaranteed...
- ...But Governor Medalla was notably less committal than in the recent past; we’re still expecting a pause.
- The Q4 GDP data before the Board meeting will be crucial, if our below-consensus 4.6% call is right.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The SBV’s move to increase the 2022 credit growth quota for more banks to 16% is largely symbolic.
- Sticky core inflation alone is unlikely to force the RBI’s hand into another rate hike in February.
- The jobless rate in the Philippines is now below the pre-pandemic low, but the devil is in the details.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Retail sales in Vietnam sprang back to life in November, breaking from their recent stagnation...
...The job market essentially is as tight as it was pre-Covid, underpinning brisk real wage growth.
GDP growth will still fall sharply this quarter, as Delta base effects unwind and industry ebbs.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand jumped to 4.5% in Q3, from 2.5% in Q2, on the back of a sturdier quarterly gain...
- ...But involuntary restocking was again the biggest driver; excess inventories will be an issue for 2023.
- The revival in tourism is on track, but it’s a cushion— at best—while consumption will soon wane faster.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth fell to a 20-month low of 12.3% in October, and more downside is ahead...
- ...The unwinding of the commodities boom is far from over, and Chinese demand is now softening.
- The rise in India’s trade deficit in October is a minor and brief setback; weak flows are the main issue.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The stability in Indonesian consumption was one of Q3’s wins; catch-up is still a factor in some sectors.
- The level of unemployment is back to “normal”, but a moderation in sky-high wage growth is coming.
- Indian IP rebounded respectably in September, but it was nowhere near enough to save the Q3 picture.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines defied gravity in Q3, inching up to 7.6% year-over-year, from 7.5% in Q2.
- But the revisions—and lack thereof—in the Q2 data markedly flatter both the yearly and quarterly story.
- The debt- and savings-fuelled consumption bounce in Q3 is far from sustainable, even if true.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia improved to 5.7% year- over-year in Q3, from 5.4% in Q2...
- ...Domestic demand is holding firm; real wage growth has accelerated substantially.
- Investment is regaining momentum, with more to come, thanks to the commodities boom.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
