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The Bank of Thailand joined the chorus of monetary tightening yesterday, hiking the policy rate to 0.75%.
The unwinding of Covid-era cuts—via relatively small rate hikes—looks like the MPC’s end-game.
Expect the next move in September, with inflation still lofty, which won’t be the case come November.
ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...
...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.
Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.
Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.
WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.
Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices...
...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner.
Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon.
CPI inflation in Thailand surprised massively to the upside in May, jumping to 7.1%, from 4.6% in April...
...But more than half of the rise was due to adverse utility base effects, which will unwind in September.
Transportation inflation looks overextended, and the spike in food inflation to global trends is mostly over.
Retail sales growth in Vietnam is heading skywards, thanks to base effects and the return of tourists.
All signs point to a punchier Q2; we have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.0%, from 8.0%.
A clear breach of the 4% inflation ceiling is looking more inevitable; expect the first SBV hike in Q4.
Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.
Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.
Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.
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