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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

utilities

23 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Bank Indonesia's Surprise 50bp Salvo is a One-Off, by Definition

  • Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
  • ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
  • The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Expect a Follow-Up Hike from the Bank of Thailand in September

The Bank of Thailand joined the chorus of monetary tightening yesterday, hiking the policy rate to 0.75%.

The unwinding of Covid-era cuts—via relatively small rate hikes—looks like the MPC’s end-game.

Expect the next move in September, with inflation still lofty, which won’t be the case come November.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Enjoy it While it Lasts... The Stability in ASEAN's PMI in July is a One-Of

ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...

...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.

Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 July 2022 Medalla Meddles with the Calendar, with a--Likely--One-and-Done Hike

The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.

Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.

WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 June 2022 Let's Try this Again... Inflation in Thailand has Peaked

CPI inflation in Thailand surprised massively to the upside in May, jumping to 7.1%, from 4.6% in April...

...But more than half of the rise was due to adverse utility base effects, which will unwind in September.

Transportation inflation looks overextended, and the spike in food inflation to global trends is mostly over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 May 2022 Retail Sales Growth in Vietnam is Flying, but Context Matters Greatly

Retail sales growth in Vietnam is heading skywards, thanks to base effects and the return of tourists.

All signs point to a punchier Q2; we have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.0%, from 8.0%.

A clear breach of the 4% inflation ceiling is looking more inevitable; expect the first SBV hike in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 May 2022 Beginnings of a Peak in Inflationary Pressures in Emerging ASEAN

Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.

Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.

Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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