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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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14 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Sturdiness of Indonesian Households is No Fluke

  • The stability in Indonesian consumption was one of Q3’s wins; catch-up is still a factor in some sectors.
  • The level of unemployment is back to “normal”, but a moderation in sky-high wage growth is coming.
  • Indian IP rebounded respectably in September, but it was nowhere near enough to save the Q3 picture.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Retail is Lacking Energy, Leaving Aside the Return to Normal

  • Retail sales growth in Indonesia fell in August, but the coming fuel price hit is likely to be trivial.
  • The Philippines’ trade deficit continues to feel downward pressure on both sides of the balance.
  • Its unemployment rate in August consolidated the fall in July, but note how participation is flying.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Count on Filipinos Spending More as Soon as Inflation Cools

  • Short-term trends in the Philippines’ volume of net sales index continued to deteriorate in July...
  • ...The inflation squeeze on households will peak this quarter, but so too should the lift from remittances.
  • Unemployment is nearing the pre-Covid level, but participation rates are also extremely elevated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Look for an Inventories-Led Bump in Today's Q2 GDP for Thailand

Expect a market-beating 4.2% print for Thailand’s Q2 GDP today, with inventories in the driver’s seat.

The minimum wage looks set to rise by 5%-to-8%, but market wages are heading that way, in any case.

Structural labour shortages are becoming more evident, with vacancies remaining high and stable.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Can't Ignore the Risk of a Technical Recession in the Philippines

Philippine GDP shrank unexpectedly in Q2, as we warned, raising the odds of a BSP pause next week.

Consumption largely was to blame; the absence of a savings safety net—not inflation—is the real issue.

A further rise in investment cushioned the blow, but catch-up growth can’t be relied upon indefinitely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI Continues to Move the Policy Goalposts, but will Hike, Eventually

Bank Indonesia continued to side with the majority opinion last week, keeping interest rates on hold...

...But the calm in core inflation won’t last long, especially with labour market pressures rebuilding.

The Board can’t just keep raising the target for loan growth; this month’s upgrade will soon be outdated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 July 2022 The Worst is Over for Indonesian Retail Sales Growth in 2022

Retail sales growth in Indonesia crashed to 2.9% year-over-year in May, the worst since the Delta hit...

...But base effects and improving confidence should see a swift—and sustainable—return to fast growth.

A return to pre-Covid unemployment is a matter of when, not if, looking at the highs in job expectations.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 June 2022 Throw a Party for Vietnam's Market- Beating Q2 GDP at Your Own Risk

GDP growth in Vietnam soared to 7.7% in Q2, from 5.0% in Q1, beating our above-consensus forecast.

The jump is misleading, though, as base effects flattered, while industry was the lone bright spot.

Momentum is ebbing, heading into Q3, but this is unlikely to be perceptible in the official GDP data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 June 2022 Indonesian Retail Sales are Sitting Pretty, for Bad and Good Reasons

Retail sales growth in Indonesia slipped trivially in April; Ramadan demand was as strong as last year.

More broadly, sales are still playing catch-up, and inflation isn’t as painful, unlike in most of EM Asia.

Confidence is resurging, pointing to upside risks, though the job market recovery is incomplete.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 June 2022 India's Solid Start to 2022 will be Near Impossible to Sustain

GDP growth in India beat expectations marginally in Q1, moderating merely to 4.1%, from 5.4% in Q4.

Capex drove the q/q bounce, but disappointment lies ahead, with signs pointing to a cyclical slump.

Growth likely will pop in Q2, thanks largely to base effects, but the oil squeeze will result in a Q3 crash.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 May 2022 BSP Policy has Turned, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike This Year

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the overnight reverse repo rate by 25bp, to 2.25%...

...We see just one more hike this year, versus the consensus for three, as H2 will be very different.

A weak Q2 GDP report and the impending U-turn in oil inflation should force a pause in August.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 May 2022 A Clear Philippine Election Result will Matter Most for Markets

The likely election of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as the Philippine president shouldn't spook markets...

...A smooth transition matters most; gridlock due to a contested result is the worst-case scenario.

Any future administration will have to shelve reform, as repairing the Covid damage is far from over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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