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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Thailand’s customs trade deficit fell to just $597M in October, thanks to still-helpful seasonal effects...
...This masked an immediate reversal of the unsustainable bounce in exports in September.
Falling imports—in nominal and real terms—likely will drive the “improvement” in the trade balance.
The SBV last week widened the dong’s daily trading band to ±5%; it last did so in 2015, to ±3%...
...Vietnam’s healthy trade surplus hid a big BoP shock, and FX reserves now are too low.
The growth outlook for 2023 is worsening; the exchange rate shock is only adding insult to injury.
We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.
WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.
Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.
Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.
GDP growth in Thailand disappointed in Q2, inching up to 2.5% year-over-year, from 2.3% in Q1.
Private consumption and inventories were the main drivers, but these sources of support will fade.
Net trade was a drag, but the strong revival in tourism should be more evident this quarter.
Expect a market-beating 4.2% print for Thailand’s Q2 GDP today, with inventories in the driver’s seat.
The minimum wage looks set to rise by 5%-to-8%, but market wages are heading that way, in any case.
Structural labour shortages are becoming more evident, with vacancies remaining high and stable.
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