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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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trade

29 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thailand's Shrinking Trade Deficit is Less Exciting than it Appears

Thailand’s customs trade deficit fell to just $597M in October, thanks to still-helpful seasonal effects...

...This masked an immediate reversal of the unsustainable bounce in exports in September.

Falling imports—in nominal and real terms—likely will drive the “improvement” in the trade balance.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Export Growth is Fast Losing Support Left and Right

  • Indonesian export growth fell to a 20-month low of 12.3% in October, and more downside is ahead...
  • ...The unwinding of the commodities boom is far from over, and Chinese demand is now softening.
  • The rise in India’s trade deficit in October is a minor and brief setback; weak flows are the main issue.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, October

  • In one line: Just a seasonal jump in the deficit, but two-way trade is falling apart.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Reassuring Finish to Q3 for Thai Trade, but it will Hit GDP Massively

  • Thai exports rose in September for the first time in months, but not enough to stop a trade hit to GDP…
  • …And in spite of the revival in tourism; we have cut our Q3 GDP forecast to a below-consensus 4.4%.
  • The SBV hiked by another 100bp to shore up the VND, compelling us to cut our 2023 GDP forecast.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Thailand, September

  • In one line: DM demand is stabilising, but Q3 was abysmal for exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor SBV had No Choice but to Widen the VND Band... 2023 will be Tough

The SBV last week widened the dong’s daily trading band to ±5%; it last did so in 2015, to ±3%...

...Vietnam’s healthy trade surplus hid a big BoP shock, and FX reserves now are too low.

The growth outlook for 2023 is worsening; the exchange rate shock is only adding insult to injury. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's Commodities Boost is Fading, but Q3 Trade was Solid

  • Export growth in Indonesia slowed sharply to 20% year-over-year in September, a 19-month low...
  • ...This slump still has plenty of room to run—well into 2023—as the lift from commodity prices unwinds.
  • We reckon the GDP boost from trade continued in Q3; our 7% above-consensus forecast stands.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, September

  • In one line: The assistance from oil prices is far from over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Retail is Lacking Energy, Leaving Aside the Return to Normal

  • Retail sales growth in Indonesia fell in August, but the coming fuel price hit is likely to be trivial.
  • The Philippines’ trade deficit continues to feel downward pressure on both sides of the balance.
  • Its unemployment rate in August consolidated the fall in July, but note how participation is flying.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentally, the Worst of the Pressure on the Baht Likely is Over

  • Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
  • ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
  • The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Get Excited--At All--if Vietnam's Q3 Beats Expectations

  • We expect a consensus-beating 18.0% Q3 GDP for Vietnam this week; thank base effects, nothing else.
  • The economy is in a broad-based soft patch, and the likely trade lift is due only to collapsing imports.
  • The recent relaxation of credit quotas is too late for 2022; the real battle is with the slump in M2 growth 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Coming Price Hit, and Volumes Cushion, in Indonesian Trade

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus beat expectations last month, as predicted, but it will start falling soon...
  • ...Commodity prices will be net-negative shortly, offset only partially by EU and Chinese demand.
  • Expectations for a current account deficit this year still seem off; that’s a mid-2023 story, at the earliest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Q3 is Turning Out to be Meh, Base Effects Notwithstanding

  • Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
  • ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
  • Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Base Effects Should Guarantee a 20%-Plus Q2 GDP Print in India

We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Count on a Repeat of Thailand's Growth Drivers in Q3

GDP growth in Thailand disappointed in Q2, inching up to 2.5% year-over-year, from 2.3% in Q1.

Private consumption and inventories were the main drivers, but these sources of support will fade.

Net trade was a drag, but the strong revival in tourism should be more evident this quarter.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Look for an Inventories-Led Bump in Today's Q2 GDP for Thailand

Expect a market-beating 4.2% print for Thailand’s Q2 GDP today, with inventories in the driver’s seat.

The minimum wage looks set to rise by 5%-to-8%, but market wages are heading that way, in any case.

Structural labour shortages are becoming more evident, with vacancies remaining high and stable.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, July

  • In one line: The struggle in exports is coming to the fore.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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