1 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Still Waiting for Signs of a U-Turn in Slumping Vietnamese Exports

• Vietnam’s exports continue to slide, falling well below the trend; no signs of a bounce from imports.
• Ignore double-digit retail sales growth; the level is stagnant and inflation will only worsen.
• Thailand’s final pre-Q3 GDP data dump all but confirms our 4.4% year-over-year forecast.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, August

• In one line: Don’t let Delta-era base effects fool you.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Retail is Lacking Energy, Leaving Aside the Return to Normal

• Retail sales growth in Indonesia fell in August, but the coming fuel price hit is likely to be trivial.
• The Philippines’ trade deficit continues to feel downward pressure on both sides of the balance.
• Its unemployment rate in August consolidated the fall in July, but note how participation is flying.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Filipinos are Powering Through, but at the Cost of Future Consumption

• Sales growth in the Philippines hit a four-month high in August, and marginal trends are stabilising...
• ...But the upswing in momentum is built on the back of a costly and unsustainable surge in borrowing.
• The Covid-era savings hole remains the underlying issue; long-run spending intentions are now ebbing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, July

• In one line: The end of the base-effect boost is just around the corner.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Steady, if Uninspiring, Catch-Up in Indonesian Retail Sales Persists

• Retail Sales momentum in Indonesia has ebbed recently, following this year's big Ramadam binge...
• …An instant hit from the fuel price hike is no surety; 
  we’ll take our cues from the impact on confidence.
• The misery in Philippine exports is set to continue, 
  even if demand from China recovers shortly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, June

• In one line: Still no noticeable and persistent hit from high inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Q3 is Turning Out to be Meh, Base Effects Notwithstanding

• Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
• ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
• Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Base Effects Should Guarantee a 20%-Plus Q2 GDP Print in India

We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Enjoy it While it Lasts... The Stability in ASEAN's PMI in July is a One-Of

ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...

...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.

Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Look-Ahead to the Final Bits of EM Asia Activity Data in July

Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.

Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.

Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 July 2022 The Worst is Over for Indonesian Retail Sales Growth in 2022

Retail sales growth in Indonesia crashed to 2.9% year-over-year in May, the worst since the Delta hit...

...But base effects and improving confidence should see a swift—and sustainable—return to fast growth.

A return to pre-Covid unemployment is a matter of when, not if, looking at the highs in job expectations.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 July 2022 Inflation is Biting Hard, with Filipinos Relying on--Already Low--Savings

Year-over-year sales growth in the Philippines is slowing fast, catching-up with short-term trends...

...And this in spite of the fresh drawdown in savings, underscoring the acute pinch of rising inflation.

Dissaving accelerated in 2021, with the stock ending the year 12% below the pre-Covid trend.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 July 2022 Thai Consumers Wave Goodbye to Omicron; No Inflation Hit to See, Yet

Retail sales growth in Thailand bounced strongly in April, with Q2 likely to see faster double-digit prints.

Reopening stimulus largely is over—locally—but tourist dollars look poised for a near-vertical leap.

We’re keeping to our above-consensus 2022 GDP forecasts; the lagged inflation hit is a 2023 problem.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, April

• In one line: Moving swiftly on from Omicron.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia