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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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We expect India’s Q2 GDP report tomorrow to beat expectations, with growth surging to over 20%...
...The boost from Delta base effects will be strong, and consumers regained energy, post-Omicron.
The overall q/q profile will be soft, though, due to non-existent new investment and a bigger trade hit.
ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...
...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.
Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.
Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.
Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.
Retail sales growth in Indonesia crashed to 2.9% year-over-year in May, the worst since the Delta hit...
...But base effects and improving confidence should see a swift—and sustainable—return to fast growth.
A return to pre-Covid unemployment is a matter of when, not if, looking at the highs in job expectations.
Year-over-year sales growth in the Philippines is slowing fast, catching-up with short-term trends...
...And this in spite of the fresh drawdown in savings, underscoring the acute pinch of rising inflation.
Dissaving accelerated in 2021, with the stock ending the year 12% below the pre-Covid trend.
Retail sales growth in Thailand bounced strongly in April, with Q2 likely to see faster double-digit prints.
Reopening stimulus largely is over—locally—but tourist dollars look poised for a near-vertical leap.
We’re keeping to our above-consensus 2022 GDP forecasts; the lagged inflation hit is a 2023 problem.
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