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Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...
...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.
The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.
Tourism in ASEAN is skyrocketing, and we see no reason to panic over Thailand’s underperformance.
Visitors from China aren’t entirely M.I.A., but their near-absence ultimately will impose a hard ceiling.
We maintain that a pause by the BSP is imminent, despite last week’s continued tightening in policy.
GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.
Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.
The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.
ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...
...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.
Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Bank Indonesia continued to side with the majority opinion last week, keeping interest rates on hold...
...But the calm in core inflation won’t last long, especially with labour market pressures rebuilding.
The Board can’t just keep raising the target for loan growth; this month’s upgrade will soon be outdated.
The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.
We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.
A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.
The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.
The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.
The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.
We reckon that the RBI will opt for a smaller-than- expected 25bp hike on Wednesday, to 4.65%...
...Recall that only a minority of the MPC is trigger-happy, and recent policy moves are disinflationary.
The case for an unexpected higher turn in BoT policy has grown since the last meeting in March.
Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.
The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...
...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.
The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.
India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.
Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the overnight reverse repo rate by 25bp, to 2.25%...
...We see just one more hike this year, versus the consensus for three, as H2 will be very different.
A weak Q2 GDP report and the impending U-turn in oil inflation should force a pause in August.
We have raised our average inflation forecast for India in 2022, to 7.5%, following the April surprise.
The worst of oil pressures is over, but food inflation is broadening and core inflation is hardening.
We now also expect sustained rate hikes from August, with a higher terminal policy rate of 5.90%.
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