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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Recession Revealed... Brace for a Q3 Collapse in GDP Growth in India

  • GDP growth in India disappointed in Q2, jumping merely to 13.5%, despite huge Delta base effects.
  • The headline should collapse in Q3, especially with the drag from oil prices persisting until early 2023.
  • The road ahead for consumption and investment will be rockier, rising inflation and credit costs aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Enjoy it While it Lasts... The Stability in ASEAN's PMI in July is a One-Of

ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...

...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.

Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 July 2022 Thai Consumers Wave Goodbye to Omicron; No Inflation Hit to See, Yet

Retail sales growth in Thailand bounced strongly in April, with Q2 likely to see faster double-digit prints.

Reopening stimulus largely is over—locally—but tourist dollars look poised for a near-vertical leap.

We’re keeping to our above-consensus 2022 GDP forecasts; the lagged inflation hit is a 2023 problem.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 June 2022 India's Solid Start to 2022 will be Near Impossible to Sustain

GDP growth in India beat expectations marginally in Q1, moderating merely to 4.1%, from 5.4% in Q4.

Capex drove the q/q bounce, but disappointment lies ahead, with signs pointing to a cyclical slump.

Growth likely will pop in Q2, thanks largely to base effects, but the oil squeeze will result in a Q3 crash.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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