Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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rbi
- CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
- ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
- WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI’s extra meeting this week merely finalised its report to the government; we see no more hikes.
- The BSP’s head has jumped the gun, promising— unnecessarily—to match the Fed’s 75bp rate hike.
- ASEAN’s soft PMI in October is a sign of things to come, but inflationary pressures are easing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI’s meeting this week could be a non-event, if used merely as an exercise in transparency...
- ...But we think the meeting’s purpose is to bring forward an RBI pivot to a smaller—and final—hike.
- A likely poor Q3 GDP would make it hard to justify a December hike; the MPC’s main hawk has turned.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI stuck to its 50bp guns on Friday, but dissent is bubbling and a December pivot is likely...
- ...Inflation should continue to undershoot the MPC’s forecasts, and growth is not as strong as it thinks.
- Indonesia’s 2.8% deficit forecast for 2023 is on the high side; lots of space for inflation-fighting moves.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
- ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
- The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
- ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
- The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
