Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.


15 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor CPI Inflation is Turning Just in Time for a Pivotal RBI Meet in December

  • CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
  • ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
  • WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Has the RBI's Tightening Cycle Just Come to an Uneventful End

  • The RBI’s extra meeting this week merely finalised its report to the government; we see no more hikes.
  • The BSP’s head has jumped the gun, promising— unnecessarily—to match the Fed’s 75bp rate hike.
  • ASEAN’s soft PMI in October is a sign of things to come, but inflationary pressures are easing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor This Week's RBI Meeting Means that a December Hike is Off

  • The RBI’s meeting this week could be a non-event, if used merely as an exercise in transparency...
  • ...But we think the meeting’s purpose is to bring forward an RBI pivot to a smaller—and final—hike.
  • A likely poor Q3 GDP would make it hard to justify a December hike; the MPC’s main hawk has turned.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The RBI Risks Policy Overkill if it Doesn't Pivot in December

  • The RBI stuck to its 50bp guns on Friday, but dissent is bubbling and a December pivot is likely...
  • ...Inflation should continue to undershoot the MPC’s forecasts, and growth is not as strong as it thinks.
  • Indonesia’s 2.8% deficit forecast for 2023 is on the high side; lots of space for inflation-fighting moves.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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