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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.
The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.
The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.
The RBI yesterday raised the policy repo rate by 40bp, to 4.40%, in an out-of-cycle meeting...
...The bigger-than-expected hike reflects an MPC playing catch-up, but June probably will be a hold.
The economy clearly is wobbling in the face of high oil prices; expect more hikes in 2023, than in 2022.
The RBI held its main policy rates steady on Friday, but its de facto stance is now clearly "neutral".
Normalisation has begun, in effect, with a narrowing of the interest rate corridor to the pre-Covid width.
The Bank raised its CPI forecast substantially for this FY, but we think it will have to go further.
India's PMI data show a solid finish to Q1, with little real damage from Omicron during the quarter...
...But the PMIs suggest that GDP expectations for Q1 are on the high side; we see growth of just 1.8%.
The details show that catch-up growth is no longer in play, and that costs pressures are still rising fast.
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