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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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9 June 2022 Now More a Matter of When, Not If, the BoT will Hike This Year

The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.

The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.

The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 May 2022 To the RBI... This is What Happens When You Fall Behind the Curve

The RBI yesterday raised the policy repo rate by 40bp, to 4.40%, in an out-of-cycle meeting...

...The bigger-than-expected hike reflects an MPC playing catch-up, but June probably will be a hold.

The economy clearly is wobbling in the face of high oil prices; expect more hikes in 2023, than in 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 Apr 2022 The RBI is "Neutral" and "Normalising" in All but Name

The RBI held its main policy rates steady on Friday, but its de facto stance is now clearly "neutral". 

Normalisation has begun, in effect, with a narrowing of the interest rate corridor to the pre-Covid width. 

The Bank raised its CPI forecast substantially for this FY, but we think it will have to go further. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Apr 2022 India's Q1 Omicron Hit was Trivial, but GDP Growth Likely Fell Further

India's PMI data show a solid finish to Q1, with little real damage from Omicron during the quarter...

...But the PMIs suggest that GDP expectations for Q1 are on the high side; we see growth of just 1.8%.

The details show that catch-up growth is no longer in play, and that costs pressures are still rising fast.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Mar 2022 The BSP has Just Made it Harder to Justify Normalisation This Year

  • The BSP raised its 2022 inflation forecast to 4.3%, which is too punchy, despite the stickiness in oil.
  • The bar for normalisation is higher than above- target CPI; second-round effects will matter more.
  • Thailand's exports rebounded respectably in February, but momentum is clearly ebbing from Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 Feb 2022 The BSP Nods to Normalisation, but the Waiting Game will be Long

  • The BSP held rates yesterday, but said for the first time since Covid that it's looking at normalisation.
  • We are sticking to our below-consensus forecast for no hikes this year; Mr. Diokno set a very high bar.
  • Slack defines this economy, more than most, and we see no chance of inflation breaching the target.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Feb 2022 BI Shouldn't Lose Much Sleep Over the Size of the Fed Hike in March

  • BI is becoming more worried about imminent Fed hikes, but currency stability looks secure...
  • ...The IDR is close to fair value, foreigners hold only a small share of bonds, and FX reserves are ample.
  • We'll be upgrading our Q4 growth forecast for India, but the IP data broadly show an end-year stall.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Feb 2022 Inflation in ASEAN is in for a Roller- Coaster Ride for the Rest of 2022

  • Major crosscurrents will keep ASEAN inflation from swinging wildly—in either direction—this year...
  • ...Non-core imported disinflation will butt heads with pandemic-era supply issues yet to be resolved.
  • Government policies—both past, present and future—will differentiate trajectories in inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

28 Jan 2022 Why we're not Celebrating the Philippines' Consensus-Beating Q4

  • GDP growth in the Philippines surprised to the upside in Q4, though the headlines are misleading.
  • Disconcertingly, capex is stalling well below the pre-Covid level; election uncertainties won't help.
  • Consumption was solid and Omicron is unlikely to register in Q1, but watch the slowing vax rate.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 Jan 2022 Brace for Some--Surface--Volatility in Vietnam's January Data Dump

  • Expect a spike in Vietnam's YTD retail sales growth print for January, thanks to the December leap.
  • The mobility data have yet to show any Delta 2.0 or Omicron anxieties, keeping catch-up growth intact.
  • The trade surplus likely leapt to a 17-month high, as volatile Tet effects take over in the short run.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Jan 2022 Omicron Poses Short-Term Worries, but BI Normalisation is Coming

  • Bank Indonesia is more than ready to unwind Covid support, looking at the full reversal of RRR cuts...
  • ...But rate hikes are unlikely until mid-year, in spite of BI's hawkish view on the Fed; thank Omicron.
  • Loan growth will surpass BI's 2022 forecast soon, and inflation is unlikely to stay a non-issue for long.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Jan 2022 Staying Off Zero Covid will Mute the Omicron Hit to ASEAN Retail Sales

  • Retail sales growth in Indonesia is back firmly in the black, and likely ended 2021 on a high note.
  • Sales in ex-"Zero Covid"-ers suffered the most during Delta; we see no return to this with Omicron.
  • Expect a more broad-based 4.1% quarterly rise for the Philippines' Q4 GDP report, due in two weeks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Jan 2022 A Strong Finish for ASEAN Industry in 2021, but Warning Signs Abound

  • The post-Delta rebound in ASEAN manufacturing was robust, with the regional PMI soaring in Q4...
  • ...But the end of the honeymoon period is nigh; Omicron is here and new orders are slowing.
  • Central banks beware, as we still see no let-up in accelerating upstream and downstream price rises.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 Dec 2021 Bank Indonesia's "Pro-Stability" Stance for 2022 Means Rate Hikes

  • BI's "pro-stability" mantra for 2022 implies that it'll also act if things get too hot; watch credit growth.
  • A prolonged pause would be pro-cyclical and risk IDR stability; we still see two 25bp rate hikes in H2.
  • Retail sales growth is back in the black, and the surge in confidence implies this is no one-off.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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