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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

rate hike

18 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Look Out for a Simultaneous Pivot by BI and the BSP in December

  • BI and the BSP yesterday raised their rates by 50bp and 75bp, respectively, in line with expectations.
  • The governors of both central banks left some breadcrumbs for a potential pivot to smaller hikes...
  • ...BI is sounding more reassured about inflation, and the BSP’s anxiety over the core rate is misplaced.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Soon-to-be Sticky Inflation Sets Up a Tight November Vote for the BoT

  • Thailand’s fast disinflation looks set to stall, for now; we still see a BoT hold this month, but it’ll be close.
  • The Philippines’ volume of net sales index remained firm in September, but don’t rely on it for Q3 GDP.
  • The jobless rate still is struggling to return to the pre-Covid level, despite sky-high participation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor SBV had No Choice but to Widen the VND Band... 2023 will be Tough

The SBV last week widened the dong’s daily trading band to ±5%; it last did so in 2015, to ±3%...

...Vietnam’s healthy trade surplus hid a big BoP shock, and FX reserves now are too low.

The growth outlook for 2023 is worsening; the exchange rate shock is only adding insult to injury. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

12 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Retail is Lacking Energy, Leaving Aside the Return to Normal

  • Retail sales growth in Indonesia fell in August, but the coming fuel price hit is likely to be trivial.
  • The Philippines’ trade deficit continues to feel downward pressure on both sides of the balance.
  • Its unemployment rate in August consolidated the fall in July, but note how participation is flying.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentally, the Worst of the Pressure on the Baht Likely is Over

  • Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
  • ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
  • The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Get Excited--At All--if Vietnam's Q3 Beats Expectations

  • We expect a consensus-beating 18.0% Q3 GDP for Vietnam this week; thank base effects, nothing else.
  • The economy is in a broad-based soft patch, and the likely trade lift is due only to collapsing imports.
  • The recent relaxation of credit quotas is too late for 2022; the real battle is with the slump in M2 growth 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Bank Indonesia's Surprise 50bp Salvo is a One-Off, by Definition

  • Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
  • ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
  • The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Count on Filipinos Spending More as Soon as Inflation Cools

  • Short-term trends in the Philippines’ volume of net sales index continued to deteriorate in July...
  • ...The inflation squeeze on households will peak this quarter, but so too should the lift from remittances.
  • Unemployment is nearing the pre-Covid level, but participation rates are also extremely elevated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI has Joined the Party, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike this Year

Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...

...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.

The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Q2 was a Real Turning Point for the Revival in ASEAN Tourism

Tourism in ASEAN is skyrocketing, and we see no reason to panic over Thailand’s underperformance.

Visitors from China aren’t entirely M.I.A., but their near-absence ultimately will impose a hard ceiling.

We maintain that a pause by the BSP is imminent, despite last week’s continued tightening in policy.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Look for an Inventories-Led Bump in Today's Q2 GDP for Thailand

Expect a market-beating 4.2% print for Thailand’s Q2 GDP today, with inventories in the driver’s seat.

The minimum wage looks set to rise by 5%-to-8%, but market wages are heading that way, in any case.

Structural labour shortages are becoming more evident, with vacancies remaining high and stable.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Can't Ignore the Risk of a Technical Recession in the Philippines

Philippine GDP shrank unexpectedly in Q2, as we warned, raising the odds of a BSP pause next week.

Consumption largely was to blame; the absence of a savings safety net—not inflation—is the real issue.

A further rise in investment cushioned the blow, but catch-up growth can’t be relied upon indefinitely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI Surveys Suggest Diminishing Urgency for Aggressive Rate Hikes

Elevated inflation expectations in India continue to tick down, lowering the need for more big rate hikes.

Widespread plans for price rises are unlikely to be realised fully, with inventories also historically high.

Long overdue fuel-related disinflation is now surfacing in the worst-hit countries in EM ASEAN.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Be Surprised if Indonesia Outdoes its Strong Q2 Performance

GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.

Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.

The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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