Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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policy

3 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The RBI Risks Policy Overkill if it Doesn't Pivot in December

  • The RBI stuck to its 50bp guns on Friday, but dissent is bubbling and a December pivot is likely...
  • ...Inflation should continue to undershoot the MPC’s forecasts, and growth is not as strong as it thinks.
  • Indonesia’s 2.8% deficit forecast for 2023 is on the high side; lots of space for inflation-fighting moves.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Get Excited--At All--if Vietnam's Q3 Beats Expectations

  • We expect a consensus-beating 18.0% Q3 GDP for Vietnam this week; thank base effects, nothing else.
  • The economy is in a broad-based soft patch, and the likely trade lift is due only to collapsing imports.
  • The recent relaxation of credit quotas is too late for 2022; the real battle is with the slump in M2 growth 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Q3 is Turning Out to be Meh, Base Effects Notwithstanding

  • Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
  • ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
  • Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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