Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
policy
- The RBI stuck to its 50bp guns on Friday, but dissent is bubbling and a December pivot is likely...
- ...Inflation should continue to undershoot the MPC’s forecasts, and growth is not as strong as it thinks.
- Indonesia’s 2.8% deficit forecast for 2023 is on the high side; lots of space for inflation-fighting moves.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect a consensus-beating 18.0% Q3 GDP for Vietnam this week; thank base effects, nothing else.
- The economy is in a broad-based soft patch, and the likely trade lift is due only to collapsing imports.
- The recent relaxation of credit quotas is too late for 2022; the real battle is with the slump in M2 growth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
- ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
- A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
- ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
- The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
- We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
- India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
- Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
- The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
- Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
- India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
- ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
- Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
