2 Dec 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor China's Lockdowns Pose no Big Threat to Disinflation in EM Asia

Indian and ASEAN PMIs show that China’s recent lockdowns are not wrecking supply chains...

...Input price increases continue to moderate markedly region-wide, softening to two-year lows.

Core inflation in Indonesia is showing more signs of stability; a BI pivot to 25bp still is on for this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The RBI's Latest Surveys Give More Reassurance than Warning Signs

• Inflation expectations in India remain high, but stable, despite multiple pressures this year.
• The mismatch between demand and supply is closing; further disinflation still lies ahead.
• The PMIs for Q3 show a clear softening in activity; don’t bother with their rosy year-over-year signal.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

• Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
• We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
• India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia