Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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pmi
- The RBI’s extra meeting this week merely finalised its report to the government; we see no more hikes.
- The BSP’s head has jumped the gun, promising— unnecessarily—to match the Fed’s 75bp rate hike.
- ASEAN’s soft PMI in October is a sign of things to come, but inflationary pressures are easing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s PMI jumped to an eleven-month high in September, the signs appear good for Q4...
- ...But the longer-term picture is looking shaky, with orders failing to keep up with an historic stock-build.
- The fuel-led spike in Indonesian inflation last month was within expectations, showing no instant ripples.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s customs trade deficit continued to widen sharply in August, due to the slump in exports...
- ...But shipments should soon stabilise, and the U-turn in surging imports has only just started.
- The SBV’s unexpected rate hike on Friday was more about exchange rate management than inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
- We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
- India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
- Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
- The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
- ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
- Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
