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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

oil price

2 Dec 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor China's Lockdowns Pose no Big Threat to Disinflation in EM Asia

Indian and ASEAN PMIs show that China’s recent lockdowns are not wrecking supply chains...

...Input price increases continue to moderate markedly region-wide, softening to two-year lows.

Core inflation in Indonesia is showing more signs of stability; a BI pivot to 25bp still is on for this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Bank Indonesia's Surprise 50bp Salvo is a One-Off, by Definition

  • Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
  • ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
  • The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

  • We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
  • ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
  • A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Coming Price Hit, and Volumes Cushion, in Indonesian Trade

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus beat expectations last month, as predicted, but it will start falling soon...
  • ...Commodity prices will be net-negative shortly, offset only partially by EU and Chinese demand.
  • Expectations for a current account deficit this year still seem off; that’s a mid-2023 story, at the earliest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Outright WPI Deflation in India is Now in the Picture for Q2

  • WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
  • ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
  • The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Count on Filipinos Spending More as Soon as Inflation Cools

  • Short-term trends in the Philippines’ volume of net sales index continued to deteriorate in July...
  • ...The inflation squeeze on households will peak this quarter, but so too should the lift from remittances.
  • Unemployment is nearing the pre-Covid level, but participation rates are also extremely elevated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

  • Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
  • Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
  • The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
     

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai Consumers aren't Immune to Inflation, but a Cushion is Forming

  • Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
  • Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
  • India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Recession Revealed... Brace for a Q3 Collapse in GDP Growth in India

  • GDP growth in India disappointed in Q2, jumping merely to 13.5%, despite huge Delta base effects.
  • The headline should collapse in Q3, especially with the drag from oil prices persisting until early 2023.
  • The road ahead for consumption and investment will be rockier, rising inflation and credit costs aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Q2 was a Real Turning Point for the Revival in ASEAN Tourism

Tourism in ASEAN is skyrocketing, and we see no reason to panic over Thailand’s underperformance.

Visitors from China aren’t entirely M.I.A., but their near-absence ultimately will impose a hard ceiling.

We maintain that a pause by the BSP is imminent, despite last week’s continued tightening in policy.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The Details of July's WPI Offer a Lot of Hope for Smaller RBI Hikes

WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.

Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.

Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Expect a Follow-Up Hike from the Bank of Thailand in September

The Bank of Thailand joined the chorus of monetary tightening yesterday, hiking the policy rate to 0.75%.

The unwinding of Covid-era cuts—via relatively small rate hikes—looks like the MPC’s end-game.

Expect the next move in September, with inflation still lofty, which won’t be the case come November.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI Surveys Suggest Diminishing Urgency for Aggressive Rate Hikes

Elevated inflation expectations in India continue to tick down, lowering the need for more big rate hikes.

Widespread plans for price rises are unlikely to be realised fully, with inventories also historically high.

Long overdue fuel-related disinflation is now surfacing in the worst-hit countries in EM ASEAN.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Try Not to Get Too Carried Away by India's Decent Start to Q3

India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.

The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.

The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Enjoy it While it Lasts... The Stability in ASEAN's PMI in July is a One-Of

ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...

...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.

Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 July 2022 Indonesia's Q2 Trade was Solid, and Q3 Likely will be as Good as it Gets

Indonesia’s trade surplus bounced sharply in June, on the back of the U-turn on the palm oil ban...

...Downside risks from China have fallen materially, but the commodities lift will disappear from Q4.

The y/y trade hit to GDP growth in India in Q2 will be substantial, mainly due to adverse base effects.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 July 2022 Medalla Meddles with the Calendar, with a--Likely--One-and-Done Hike

The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.

Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.

WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 July 2022 Falling Oil will Take Pressure off the RBI, but it's More a 2023 CPI Story

Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.

Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.

The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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