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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Indian and ASEAN PMIs show that China’s recent lockdowns are not wrecking supply chains...
...Input price increases continue to moderate markedly region-wide, softening to two-year lows.
Core inflation in Indonesia is showing more signs of stability; a BI pivot to 25bp still is on for this month.
Tourism in ASEAN is skyrocketing, and we see no reason to panic over Thailand’s underperformance.
Visitors from China aren’t entirely M.I.A., but their near-absence ultimately will impose a hard ceiling.
We maintain that a pause by the BSP is imminent, despite last week’s continued tightening in policy.
WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.
Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.
Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.
The Bank of Thailand joined the chorus of monetary tightening yesterday, hiking the policy rate to 0.75%.
The unwinding of Covid-era cuts—via relatively small rate hikes—looks like the MPC’s end-game.
Expect the next move in September, with inflation still lofty, which won’t be the case come November.
Elevated inflation expectations in India continue to tick down, lowering the need for more big rate hikes.
Widespread plans for price rises are unlikely to be realised fully, with inventories also historically high.
Long overdue fuel-related disinflation is now surfacing in the worst-hit countries in EM ASEAN.
India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.
The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.
The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.
ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...
...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.
Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Indonesia’s trade surplus bounced sharply in June, on the back of the U-turn on the palm oil ban...
...Downside risks from China have fallen materially, but the commodities lift will disappear from Q4.
The y/y trade hit to GDP growth in India in Q2 will be substantial, mainly due to adverse base effects.
The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.
Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.
WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.
Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.
Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.
The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.
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