Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Tourism in ASEAN is skyrocketing, and we see no reason to panic over Thailand’s underperformance.
Visitors from China aren’t entirely M.I.A., but their near-absence ultimately will impose a hard ceiling.
We maintain that a pause by the BSP is imminent, despite last week’s continued tightening in policy.
WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.
Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.
Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.
The Bank of Thailand joined the chorus of monetary tightening yesterday, hiking the policy rate to 0.75%.
The unwinding of Covid-era cuts—via relatively small rate hikes—looks like the MPC’s end-game.
Expect the next move in September, with inflation still lofty, which won’t be the case come November.
Elevated inflation expectations in India continue to tick down, lowering the need for more big rate hikes.
Widespread plans for price rises are unlikely to be realised fully, with inventories also historically high.
Long overdue fuel-related disinflation is now surfacing in the worst-hit countries in EM ASEAN.
India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.
The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.
The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.
ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...
...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.
Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Indonesia’s trade surplus bounced sharply in June, on the back of the U-turn on the palm oil ban...
...Downside risks from China have fallen materially, but the commodities lift will disappear from Q4.
The y/y trade hit to GDP growth in India in Q2 will be substantial, mainly due to adverse base effects.
The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.
Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.
WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.
Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.
Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.
The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.
Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices...
...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner.
Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon.
The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.
We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.
A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Emerging Asia Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence