Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
oil
- Bank Indonesia surprised markets yesterday, hiking its benchmark rate by 50bp, to 4.25%...
- ...But we see no appetite for this to be the norm; BI easily would ditch the focus on core, if convenient.
- The BSP’s ongoing worries over inflation make no sense, given the global trends in oil and food prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
- ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
- A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s trade surplus beat expectations last month, as predicted, but it will start falling soon...
- ...Commodity prices will be net-negative shortly, offset only partially by EU and Chinese demand.
- Expectations for a current account deficit this year still seem off; that’s a mid-2023 story, at the earliest.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- WPI inflation in India continued to slow sharply in August, with outright deflation now on the horizon....
- ...This should build the case for smaller rate hikes, especially with more cracks showing in RBI unity.
- The trade deficit likely has peaked, thanks to falling oil prices, but don’t expect any help from exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Short-term trends in the Philippines’ volume of net sales index continued to deteriorate in July...
- ...The inflation squeeze on households will peak this quarter, but so too should the lift from remittances.
- Unemployment is nearing the pre-Covid level, but participation rates are also extremely elevated.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
- We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
- India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Base effects are flattering Thai consumption, but the inflation bite is coming, lasting well into 2023.
- Food prices, the largest driver of the rise in inflation in Indonesia, appear finally to have turned a corner.
- India’s urban unemployment rate fell further in Q2, to a series low, despite the economy’s soft patch.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in India disappointed in Q2, jumping merely to 13.5%, despite huge Delta base effects.
- The headline should collapse in Q3, especially with the drag from oil prices persisting until early 2023.
- The road ahead for consumption and investment will be rockier, rising inflation and credit costs aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
