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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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14 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor The August Inflation Rebound is No Cereal Killer for Smaller RBI Hikes

  • CPI inflation in India surprised slightly to the upside in August, refuelling calls for a 50bp rate hike...
  • ...But we’re sticking to our 25bp call; the jump in food inflation likely is a one-off, and core is steady.
  • The July crash in industrial growth was more than a base effect story, as output clearly is stagnating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Expect a Follow-Up Hike from the Bank of Thailand in September

The Bank of Thailand joined the chorus of monetary tightening yesterday, hiking the policy rate to 0.75%.

The unwinding of Covid-era cuts—via relatively small rate hikes—looks like the MPC’s end-game.

Expect the next move in September, with inflation still lofty, which won’t be the case come November.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI Surveys Suggest Diminishing Urgency for Aggressive Rate Hikes

Elevated inflation expectations in India continue to tick down, lowering the need for more big rate hikes.

Widespread plans for price rises are unlikely to be realised fully, with inventories also historically high.

Long overdue fuel-related disinflation is now surfacing in the worst-hit countries in EM ASEAN.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Be Surprised if Indonesia Outdoes its Strong Q2 Performance

GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.

Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.

The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Enjoy it While it Lasts... The Stability in ASEAN's PMI in July is a One-Of

ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...

...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.

Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Keeping Calm and Carrying On Amid the Pressure on Currencies

Central banks continue to put a brave face on the FX plunge, which is by no means excessive...

...The dollar has strengthened more than EM Asian FX has weakened; reserves are still a huge weapon.

Currencies are still rising in REER terms, leaving the window open for a sharp nominal retracement.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 July 2022 Falling Oil will Take Pressure off the RBI, but it's More a 2023 CPI Story

Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.

Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.

The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 June 2022 India's Historically Hot WPI for May Serves as a Harsh Reality Check

For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...

...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.

The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 June 2022 Now More a Matter of When, Not If, the BoT will Hike This Year

The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.

The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.

The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 June 2022 Expect the RBI and BoT to Shock Markets with 25bp Hikes This Week

We reckon that the RBI will opt for a smaller-than- expected 25bp hike on Wednesday, to 4.65%...

...Recall that only a minority of the MPC is trigger-happy, and recent policy moves are disinflationary.

The case for an unexpected higher turn in BoT policy has grown since the last meeting in March.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 May 2022 An RBI Hike in June is No Done- Deal, with the MPC Split 3 Ways

The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.

India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.

Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 May 2022 Faster Inflation and a Higher Terminal RBI Rate are in the Pipeline

We have raised our average inflation forecast for India in 2022, to 7.5%, following the April surprise.

The worst of oil pressures is over, but food inflation is broadening and core inflation is hardening.

We now also expect sustained rate hikes from August, with a higher terminal policy rate of 5.90%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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