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Bank Indonesia defied the consensus yesterday, as we expected, enacting its first rate hike, to 3.75%...
...But we’re sticking to our below-consensus view for just one more hike this year; policy is quite tight.
The Board can also rely credibly on sustained fiscal support, with consolidation well ahead of schedule.
Tourism in ASEAN is skyrocketing, and we see no reason to panic over Thailand’s underperformance.
Visitors from China aren’t entirely M.I.A., but their near-absence ultimately will impose a hard ceiling.
We maintain that a pause by the BSP is imminent, despite last week’s continued tightening in policy.
WPI inflation in India plunged to a five-month low in July, opening the door further for smaller rate hikes.
Upstream core disinflation is gathering pace, while oil prices should ensure a slowdown in non-core.
Our +1.2% forecast for Indonesia’s current account this year is unchanged, despite the July trade data.
The Bank of Thailand joined the chorus of monetary tightening yesterday, hiking the policy rate to 0.75%.
The unwinding of Covid-era cuts—via relatively small rate hikes—looks like the MPC’s end-game.
Expect the next move in September, with inflation still lofty, which won’t be the case come November.
Elevated inflation expectations in India continue to tick down, lowering the need for more big rate hikes.
Widespread plans for price rises are unlikely to be realised fully, with inventories also historically high.
Long overdue fuel-related disinflation is now surfacing in the worst-hit countries in EM ASEAN.
GDP growth in Indonesia surprised in Q2, as we predicted, accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year.
Consumers and traders were the star of the show, and it’s too soon to write-off the capex recovery.
The RBI opted for a larger-than-expected hike last week, even though it believes inflation has peaked.
ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...
...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.
Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
The BSP’s 75bp out-of-cycle hike was made with no signs of inflation “broadening” and “sustaining”.
Mr. Medalla likely knows his hands will be tied soon, hence the urgency to back up his hawkish talk.
WPI inflation in India slowed faster than expected in June, but the details will keep the RBI honest.
Falling oil prices mean a fiscally more sustainable freeze in pump prices in India, not lower inflation.
Real relief is unlikely to come until 2023, and risks still are to the upside, from food and core prices.
The spike in industrial production growth to a year high won’t do much to strengthen the RBI’s hawks.
New capex projects in India continue to recover, but we’re far from convinced the boom times are back.
President Marcos’ historic win saw no immediate spark in business sentiment and investment plans.
The signal from Vietnam’s Q2 BCI for Q3 GDP won’t materialise, but the former is telling the right story.
Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices...
...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner.
Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon.
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