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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

manufacturing

7 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Here Comes the Turn in Philippine Inflation... All Eyes on the BSP

  • Inflation in the Philippines slowed unexpectedly in August, with non-core headaches finally easing.
  • We continue to expect a BSP pause this month, but the peso’s demise—in its eyes—is a risk factor.
  • India’s PMI numbers for August offer much-needed reassurance on both the growth and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Q3 is Turning Out to be Meh, Base Effects Notwithstanding

  • Vietnam’s economy is ebbing in the current quarter, with consumption, specifically, disappointing...
  • ...But we still see a consensus-beating 18.0% GDP print for Q3, thanks almost entirely to base effects.
  • Inflation unexpectedly slowed in August, but the uptrend is far from over; a Q4 hike remains likely.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Try Not to Get Too Carried Away by India's Decent Start to Q3

India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.

The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.

The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Enjoy it While it Lasts... The Stability in ASEAN's PMI in July is a One-Of

ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...

...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.

Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor A Look-Ahead to the Final Bits of EM Asia Activity Data in July

Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.

Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.

Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 July 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor BI Continues to Move the Policy Goalposts, but will Hike, Eventually

Bank Indonesia continued to side with the majority opinion last week, keeping interest rates on hold...

...But the calm in core inflation won’t last long, especially with labour market pressures rebuilding.

The Board can’t just keep raising the target for loan growth; this month’s upgrade will soon be outdated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 July 2022 Indonesia's Q2 Trade was Solid, and Q3 Likely will be as Good as it Gets

Indonesia’s trade surplus bounced sharply in June, on the back of the U-turn on the palm oil ban...

...Downside risks from China have fallen materially, but the commodities lift will disappear from Q4.

The y/y trade hit to GDP growth in India in Q2 will be substantial, mainly due to adverse base effects.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 July 2022 Industry is Cooling, but ASEAN's Underperformance will Continue

The manufacturing PMIs for June show that activity ended Q2 on a soft note across the board...

...Mean-reversion in ASEAN still has room to run, while India’s hard industry data offer some hope.

The good news is that short-term price pressures look to have peaked; supply issues are non-existent.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 June 2022 No Reason to Anguish Over Indonesia's Trade Surplus Until Q4

Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.

We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.

India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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