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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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India’s PMIs remained firmly above their long-run averages in July, but the outlook remains fragile.
The surveys show clearly that monthly inflationary pressures have peaked; over to you, RBI.
The early trade data for July continue to show that oil effects no longer are the main story in imports.
ASEAN factories showed welcome stability to start Q3, with the PMI rising for the first time since April...
...But the rebounds in Indonesia and Thailand are one-offs, and most signs still point to a slowdown.
Ignore the hotter July signals for Thai and Philippine inflation; Indonesia’s core rate is reaccelerating.
Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.
We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.
The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.
Thai retail sales growth likely hit a four-month high of 12.4% in May... and this is us being conservative.
Ignore Vietnam’s ludicrously faster retail sales print; the outlook for exports in H2 remains reassuring.
Core IP growth in India likely slowed in June for the first time since March, with the Delta lift now fading.
Bank Indonesia continued to side with the majority opinion last week, keeping interest rates on hold...
...But the calm in core inflation won’t last long, especially with labour market pressures rebuilding.
The Board can’t just keep raising the target for loan growth; this month’s upgrade will soon be outdated.
Indonesia’s trade surplus bounced sharply in June, on the back of the U-turn on the palm oil ban...
...Downside risks from China have fallen materially, but the commodities lift will disappear from Q4.
The y/y trade hit to GDP growth in India in Q2 will be substantial, mainly due to adverse base effects.
The manufacturing PMIs for June show that activity ended Q2 on a soft note across the board...
...Mean-reversion in ASEAN still has room to run, while India’s hard industry data offer some hope.
The good news is that short-term price pressures look to have peaked; supply issues are non-existent.
Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.
We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.
India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.
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