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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 June 2022 Currency Chaos won't Push EM Asia to Faster or Bigger Rate Hikes

Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...

...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.

Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 June 2022 We're Sticking to our Guns... the BSP will Hold Fire from August

The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.

We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.

A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 June 2022 India's Historically Hot WPI for May Serves as a Harsh Reality Check

For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...

...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.

The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 June 2022 Now More a Matter of When, Not If, the BoT will Hike This Year

The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.

The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.

The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 June 2022 The Ceiling for Non-Core Inflation in the Philippines is on the Horizon

CPI inflation in the Philippines breached the 5% mark in May for the first time since 2018...

...Food prices largely were to blame, but June should see the final leg up in food inflation.

We have raised our average CPI forecast for 2022 to 4.8%, but still see only one more rate hike this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 June 2022 Expect the RBI and BoT to Shock Markets with 25bp Hikes This Week

We reckon that the RBI will opt for a smaller-than- expected 25bp hike on Wednesday, to 4.65%...

...Recall that only a minority of the MPC is trigger-happy, and recent policy moves are disinflationary.

The case for an unexpected higher turn in BoT policy has grown since the last meeting in March.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 May 2022 BI's Higher RRR Hikes Should Temper 2022 Rate Expectations

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.

The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...

...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 May 2022 Fuel Tax Cuts Buy the RBI Time, not Space, for a Less-Aggressive Cycle

Policy events have moved in favour of reluctant RBI hawks, bolstering the case for a June pause...

...But the fuel tax cut and the end of Indonesia’s palm oil ban are trivial in terms of the big picture.

We have lowered our 2022 average inflation forecast only minimally, to 7.2%, from 7.5%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 May 2022 An RBI Hike in June is No Done- Deal, with the MPC Split 3 Ways

The minutes of the RBI’s hike in May show that only a minority of members are gung-ho on inflation.

India’s unusually big budget gap in February is due to transfers to states; time for forecast revisions.

Indonesia’s current account narrowed further in Q1, but we now expect a full-year surplus for 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 May 2022 BSP Policy has Turned, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike This Year

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the overnight reverse repo rate by 25bp, to 2.25%...

...We see just one more hike this year, versus the consensus for three, as H2 will be very different.

A weak Q2 GDP report and the impending U-turn in oil inflation should force a pause in August.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 May 2022 Faster Inflation and a Higher Terminal RBI Rate are in the Pipeline

We have raised our average inflation forecast for India in 2022, to 7.5%, following the April surprise.

The worst of oil pressures is over, but food inflation is broadening and core inflation is hardening.

We now also expect sustained rate hikes from August, with a higher terminal policy rate of 5.90%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 May 2022 A Clear Philippine Election Result will Matter Most for Markets

The likely election of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as the Philippine president shouldn't spook markets...

...A smooth transition matters most; gridlock due to a contested result is the worst-case scenario.

Any future administration will have to shelve reform, as repairing the Covid damage is far from over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 May 2022 Beginnings of a Peak in Inflationary Pressures in Emerging ASEAN

Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.

Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.

Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 May 2022 To the RBI... This is What Happens When You Fall Behind the Curve

The RBI yesterday raised the policy repo rate by 40bp, to 4.40%, in an out-of-cycle meeting...

...The bigger-than-expected hike reflects an MPC playing catch-up, but June probably will be a hold.

The economy clearly is wobbling in the face of high oil prices; expect more hikes in 2023, than in 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 Apr 2022 Bank Indonesia's Forecast Revisions Reveal an Unspoken Victory Lap

They won't say it out loud, but BI believes with reason that the war is assisting the economy.

Exports ended Q1 with a bang, thanks to the fresh commodities lift, but the GDP trade boost is real.

The March leap in WPI inflation in India will make it much easier for the RBI to start hiking rates in June.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Apr 2022 No Price Relief in Sight for the RBI, with Surveys Still Full of Red Flags

An upshift in core inflation in India remains on the table, with sweeping price hikes still in the pipeline.

Plus, capacity utilisation likely is already above- average, and inflation expectations continue to rise.

To be sure, the risk of runaway inflation is minimal, especially with firms sitting on a lot of inventories.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 Apr 2022 The RBI is "Neutral" and "Normalising" in All but Name

The RBI held its main policy rates steady on Friday, but its de facto stance is now clearly "neutral". 

Normalisation has begun, in effect, with a narrowing of the interest rate corridor to the pre-Covid width. 

The Bank raised its CPI forecast substantially for this FY, but we think it will have to go further. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Apr 2022 India's Q1 Omicron Hit was Trivial, but GDP Growth Likely Fell Further

India's PMI data show a solid finish to Q1, with little real damage from Omicron during the quarter...

...But the PMIs suggest that GDP expectations for Q1 are on the high side; we see growth of just 1.8%.

The details show that catch-up growth is no longer in play, and that costs pressures are still rising fast.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Apr 2022 Now is Not the Time for the BoT and the BSP to Panic

CPI inflation moved further away from the 3% upper bound of the BoT's target range in March...

...But sustained disinflation remains around the corner, even if the price cap on diesel is loosened.

The risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines is minimal, despite the surprise jump to 4% in March.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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