2 Dec 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor China's Lockdowns Pose no Big Threat to Disinflation in EM Asia

Indian and ASEAN PMIs show that China’s recent lockdowns are not wrecking supply chains...

...Input price increases continue to moderate markedly region-wide, softening to two-year lows.

Core inflation in Indonesia is showing more signs of stability; a BI pivot to 25bp still is on for this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Dear BSP Watchers, No One Ever Really Sees a Turn Until it Happens

• We’re sticking to our call for an imminent BSP pause, despite expectations for another 50bp hike...
• ...The peso and FX reserve issue is a distraction; fundamentally, headline inflation is now rolling over.
• A second straight run-of-the-mill 25bp hike by BI this week is likely; we see no need for bigger steps.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Count on Filipinos Spending More as Soon as Inflation Cools

• Short-term trends in the Philippines’ volume of net sales index continued to deteriorate in July...
• ...The inflation squeeze on households will peak this quarter, but so too should the lift from remittances.
• Unemployment is nearing the pre-Covid level, but participation rates are also extremely elevated.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia Aside, the Inflation News in ASEAN is Generally Reassuring

• Indonesia’s fuel price hikes, à la 2014 in size, likely will mean a front-loading of BI’s tightening cycle.
• Inflation in Thailand hit a new multi-year high in August, but prolonged and rapid disinflation is nigh.
• The price sub-indices of the ASEAN-wide PMI continue to show that the worst of the crisis is over.
   

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia