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Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices...
...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner.
Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon.
The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.
We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.
A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.
For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...
...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.
The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.
The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.
The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.
The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.
CPI inflation in the Philippines breached the 5% mark in May for the first time since 2018...
...Food prices largely were to blame, but June should see the final leg up in food inflation.
We have raised our average CPI forecast for 2022 to 4.8%, but still see only one more rate hike this year.
CPI inflation in Thailand surprised massively to the upside in May, jumping to 7.1%, from 4.6% in April...
...But more than half of the rise was due to adverse utility base effects, which will unwind in September.
Transportation inflation looks overextended, and the spike in food inflation to global trends is mostly over.
Retail sales growth in Vietnam is heading skywards, thanks to base effects and the return of tourists.
All signs point to a punchier Q2; we have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.0%, from 8.0%.
A clear breach of the 4% inflation ceiling is looking more inevitable; expect the first SBV hike in Q4.
Policy events have moved in favour of reluctant RBI hawks, bolstering the case for a June pause...
...But the fuel tax cut and the end of Indonesia’s palm oil ban are trivial in terms of the big picture.
We have lowered our 2022 average inflation forecast only minimally, to 7.2%, from 7.5%.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the overnight reverse repo rate by 25bp, to 2.25%...
...We see just one more hike this year, versus the consensus for three, as H2 will be very different.
A weak Q2 GDP report and the impending U-turn in oil inflation should force a pause in August.
We have raised our average inflation forecast for India in 2022, to 7.5%, following the April surprise.
The worst of oil pressures is over, but food inflation is broadening and core inflation is hardening.
We now also expect sustained rate hikes from August, with a higher terminal policy rate of 5.90%.
The Philippines’ stronger-than- expected Q1 was due mainly to the likely last hurrah in consumption.
Q2 will be a wake-up call, as the election slams the brakes on government spending and investment.
We're happy to stay below-consensus on growth, but we have raised our 2022 forecast to 5.6%.
Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.
Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.
Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.
The RBI yesterday raised the policy repo rate by 40bp, to 4.40%, in an out-of-cycle meeting...
...The bigger-than-expected hike reflects an MPC playing catch-up, but June probably will be a hold.
The economy clearly is wobbling in the face of high oil prices; expect more hikes in 2023, than in 2022.
Vietnam got off to a good start to Q2, with trade remaining resilient, but consumers remain absent.
Indonesia's U-turn to a stricter palm oil ban will hurt more in the short run, but the hit won't last as long.
The rise in Thailand's diesel price cap probably will be a one-off; in any case, CPI inflation has peaked.
Thai exports end Q1 solidly, keeping the recovery chugging, despite a naturally soft start to 2022.
Remittances in the Philippines continue to lose momentum, with growth driven narrowly by the U.S.
The continued recovery in business sentiment in Vietnam suggests upside risks to Q2 GDP growth.
An upshift in core inflation in India remains on the table, with sweeping price hikes still in the pipeline.
Plus, capacity utilisation likely is already above- average, and inflation expectations continue to rise.
To be sure, the risk of runaway inflation is minimal, especially with firms sitting on a lot of inventories.
India's PMI data show a solid finish to Q1, with little real damage from Omicron during the quarter...
...But the PMIs suggest that GDP expectations for Q1 are on the high side; we see growth of just 1.8%.
The details show that catch-up growth is no longer in play, and that costs pressures are still rising fast.
CPI inflation moved further away from the 3% upper bound of the BoT's target range in March...
...But sustained disinflation remains around the corner, even if the price cap on diesel is loosened.
The risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines is minimal, despite the surprise jump to 4% in March.
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