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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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inflation

6 July 2022 Breach of 6% in Philippine Inflation is More Symbolic than Significant

Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices... 

...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner. 

Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 June 2022 We're Sticking to our Guns... the BSP will Hold Fire from August

The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.

We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.

A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 June 2022 India's Historically Hot WPI for May Serves as a Harsh Reality Check

For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...

...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.

The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 June 2022 Now More a Matter of When, Not If, the BoT will Hike This Year

The Bank of Thailand stood pat yesterday, but signalled explicitly that policy normalisation is afoot.

The big increase in its 2022 inflation forecast adds weight to our view that hikes will be front-loaded.

The Reserve Bank of India hiked by a further 50bp, but the stars are aligning for smaller increases.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 June 2022 The Ceiling for Non-Core Inflation in the Philippines is on the Horizon

CPI inflation in the Philippines breached the 5% mark in May for the first time since 2018...

...Food prices largely were to blame, but June should see the final leg up in food inflation.

We have raised our average CPI forecast for 2022 to 4.8%, but still see only one more rate hike this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 June 2022 Let's Try this Again... Inflation in Thailand has Peaked

CPI inflation in Thailand surprised massively to the upside in May, jumping to 7.1%, from 4.6% in April...

...But more than half of the rise was due to adverse utility base effects, which will unwind in September.

Transportation inflation looks overextended, and the spike in food inflation to global trends is mostly over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 May 2022 Retail Sales Growth in Vietnam is Flying, but Context Matters Greatly

Retail sales growth in Vietnam is heading skywards, thanks to base effects and the return of tourists.

All signs point to a punchier Q2; we have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.0%, from 8.0%.

A clear breach of the 4% inflation ceiling is looking more inevitable; expect the first SBV hike in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 May 2022 Fuel Tax Cuts Buy the RBI Time, not Space, for a Less-Aggressive Cycle

Policy events have moved in favour of reluctant RBI hawks, bolstering the case for a June pause...

...But the fuel tax cut and the end of Indonesia’s palm oil ban are trivial in terms of the big picture.

We have lowered our 2022 average inflation forecast only minimally, to 7.2%, from 7.5%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 May 2022 BSP Policy has Turned, but Expect Only One More Rate Hike This Year

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the overnight reverse repo rate by 25bp, to 2.25%...

...We see just one more hike this year, versus the consensus for three, as H2 will be very different.

A weak Q2 GDP report and the impending U-turn in oil inflation should force a pause in August.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 May 2022 Faster Inflation and a Higher Terminal RBI Rate are in the Pipeline

We have raised our average inflation forecast for India in 2022, to 7.5%, following the April surprise.

The worst of oil pressures is over, but food inflation is broadening and core inflation is hardening.

We now also expect sustained rate hikes from August, with a higher terminal policy rate of 5.90%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 May 2022 Expect the Philippines' Flying Start to the Year to Hit a Wall in Q2

The Philippines’ stronger-than- expected Q1 was due mainly to the likely last hurrah in consumption.

Q2 will be a wake-up call, as the election slams the brakes on government spending and investment.

We're happy to stay below-consensus on growth, but we have raised our 2022 forecast to 5.6%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 May 2022 Beginnings of a Peak in Inflationary Pressures in Emerging ASEAN

Supply-side disruptions are finally seeing a real resolution in ASEAN, despite China’s Covid woes.

Inflation in Thailand likely has peaked, but the April plunge was a statistical technicality.

Non-core crosscurrents should minimise the risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 May 2022 To the RBI... This is What Happens When You Fall Behind the Curve

The RBI yesterday raised the policy repo rate by 40bp, to 4.40%, in an out-of-cycle meeting...

...The bigger-than-expected hike reflects an MPC playing catch-up, but June probably will be a hold.

The economy clearly is wobbling in the face of high oil prices; expect more hikes in 2023, than in 2022.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 May 2022 Trade in Vietnam has Yet to Flinch in the Face of Ukraine and China Hits

Vietnam got off to a good start to Q2, with trade remaining resilient, but consumers remain absent.

Indonesia's U-turn to a stricter palm oil ban will hurt more in the short run, but the hit won't last as long.

The rise in Thailand's diesel price cap probably will be a one-off; in any case, CPI inflation has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Apr 2022 Thai Exports End Q1 with a Bang, Likely Muting the Trade Hit to GDP

Thai exports end Q1 solidly, keeping the recovery chugging, despite a naturally soft start to 2022.

Remittances in the Philippines continue to lose momentum, with growth driven narrowly by the U.S.

The continued recovery in business sentiment in Vietnam suggests upside risks to Q2 GDP growth.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 Apr 2022 No Price Relief in Sight for the RBI, with Surveys Still Full of Red Flags

An upshift in core inflation in India remains on the table, with sweeping price hikes still in the pipeline.

Plus, capacity utilisation likely is already above- average, and inflation expectations continue to rise.

To be sure, the risk of runaway inflation is minimal, especially with firms sitting on a lot of inventories.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Apr 2022 India's Q1 Omicron Hit was Trivial, but GDP Growth Likely Fell Further

India's PMI data show a solid finish to Q1, with little real damage from Omicron during the quarter...

...But the PMIs suggest that GDP expectations for Q1 are on the high side; we see growth of just 1.8%.

The details show that catch-up growth is no longer in play, and that costs pressures are still rising fast.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Apr 2022 Now is Not the Time for the BoT and the BSP to Panic

CPI inflation moved further away from the 3% upper bound of the BoT's target range in March...

...But sustained disinflation remains around the corner, even if the price cap on diesel is loosened.

The risk of runaway inflation in the Philippines is minimal, despite the surprise jump to 4% in March.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Mar 2022 The BoT's 2022 CPI Forecast is too High, but Hikes are Still on the Way

  • The BoT's marke dly higher CPI forecasts seem not to consider strong policy relief measures.
  • We still expect some normalisation this year, even if inflation undershoots the revised inflation outlook.
  • Hiring in India perked up in Januar y, despite Omicron; expect a further fall in Q1 unemployment.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 Mar 2022 The BSP has Just Made it Harder to Justify Normalisation This Year

  • The BSP raised its 2022 inflation forecast to 4.3%, which is too punchy, despite the stickiness in oil.
  • The bar for normalisation is higher than above- target CPI; second-round effects will matter more.
  • Thailand's exports rebounded respectably in February, but momentum is clearly ebbing from Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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