- In one line: Increasingly reassuring trends at the margin.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Not enough to take 25bp off the table in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The drag from oil prices has run its course.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Some reassurance after yesterday’s scorching CPI print.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Hot, but the details give reason for calm.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A reversal in Diwali effects; industry is now a two-speed sector.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Ignore the headline growth rates for December, but Q4 was grim in totality.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: IP growth remains lacklustre, Diwali effects aside; more space for the RBI to consider a February pause.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The unwinding of Delta base effects in India led to a tolerable moderation in GDP growth, to 6.3% in Q3.
But statistical discrepancies flattered the headlines, and the bump in consumption is unrepeatable.
The BoT rate, of 1.25%, likely is the terminal level; its 2023 forecasts inadvertently will justify a pause.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Just a seasonal jump in the deficit, but two-way trade is falling apart.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food inflation turns to friend from foe.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
- ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
- WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A solid finish, but the damage to Q3 is done.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A respectable bounce, but beware of extrapolating this to headline IP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai industrial growth will collapse in September, but the ongoing floods have little to do with it.
- The recovery in consumer confidence is unaffected, as it still signals a healthy floor for spending growth.
- WPI inflation in India continues to slow sharply, thanks in large part to waning food price pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
