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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

india

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, February

  • In one line: Not enough to take 25bp off the table in April.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, January

  • In one line: Some reassurance after yesterday’s scorching CPI print.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, December

  • In one line: A reversal in Diwali effects; industry is now a two-speed sector.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, December

  • In one line: Ignore the headline growth rates for December, but Q4 was grim in totality.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: November IP & December CPI, India

  • In one line: IP growth remains lacklustre, Diwali effects aside; more space for the RBI to consider a February pause.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Dec 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor India's Q3 was Deceptively Strong, Enough to Ensure a December Hike

The unwinding of Delta base effects in India led to a tolerable moderation in GDP growth, to 6.3% in Q3.

But statistical discrepancies flattered the headlines, and the bump in consumption is unrepeatable.

The BoT rate, of 1.25%, likely is the terminal level; its 2023 forecasts inadvertently will justify a pause.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, October

  • In one line: Just a seasonal jump in the deficit, but two-way trade is falling apart.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor CPI Inflation is Turning Just in Time for a Pivotal RBI Meet in December

  • CPI inflation in India plunged to 6.8% in October, from 7.4% in September, thanks to food prices...
  • ...Base effects were helpful, but the turnaround is also indicative of very benign trends at the margin.
  • WPI inflation fell to a 19-month low of 8.4% in October, and deflation is just two quarters away.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, September

  • In one line: A respectable bounce, but beware of extrapolating this to headline IP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Oct 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor No Clear Signs of Flood-Related Damage in Thailand's Sep. Surveys

  • Thai industrial growth will collapse in September, but the ongoing floods have little to do with it.
  • The recovery in consumer confidence is unaffected, as it still signals a healthy floor for spending growth.
  • WPI inflation in India continues to slow sharply, thanks in large part to waning food price pressures.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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